中国材料：2026 年实地需求监测-铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #20 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Feb 2026) Industry Overview - Industry: Aluminum - Focus: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and consumption data for the week of January 29 to February 4, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total Aluminum Production: 859,000 tons (kt), unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Aluminum Billet Production: 301,000 kt, -4% WoW, +13% YoY, and -10% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-Date (YTD) Production: - Total aluminum: 5.1 million tons (mnt), +2.9% YoY - Aluminum billets: 2.0 mnt, +8.3% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total Aluminum Inventory: 1,376 kt as of February 5, 2026, +8% WoW, -19% YoY, and +78% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Social Inventory: 1,130 kt, +7% WoW, +8% YoY, +87% YoY on lunar calendar - Producers' Inventory: 246 kt, +11% WoW, -67% YoY, +45% YoY on lunar calendar - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: 939 kt, +7% WoW, +4% YoY, +86% YoY on lunar calendar [3] - Aluminum Billet Inventory: 437 kt, +11% WoW, -45% YoY, +62% YoY on lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption: 797 kt, flat WoW, +84% YoY, and -6% YoY on lunar calendar [4] - Aluminum Ingot Consumption: 851 kt, -1% WoW, +28% YoY, -5% YoY on lunar calendar - Aluminum Billet Consumption: 246 kt, -3% WoW, +638% YoY, -13% YoY on lunar calendar - YTD Apparent Consumption: - Overall: 4.8 mnt, +14.8% YoY - Aluminum ingot: +5.1% YoY - Aluminum billet: +45.3% YoY [4] Market Sentiment and Analysis - Market Expectation: Cautious outlook on demand recovery in the aluminum sector [1] - Inventory Data Significance: The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is deemed more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusivity of various inventory types [5] - Comparative Analysis: Total aluminum apparent consumption decreased WoW but remains higher than the same period in 2022-23, while lower than 2024-25 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels as a key indicator of market demand and potential price movements in the aluminum sector [5]