2026-02-11 15:40Summary of Conference Call on Gas Turbine Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the gas turbine industry, particularly in the context of North America's electricity shortage and the increasing demand for power generation technologies [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Global Demand and Supply Dynamics: - In 2022, the global demand for gas turbines was 40 GW, increasing to 44 GW in 2023 and projected to reach 58 GW in 2024. By 2025, new orders are expected to be around 85 GW, with a long-term demand forecast exceeding 200 GW by 2030 [3][4]. - Current supply is constrained, with only 57 GW available against a demand of 87 GW for new orders in 2025, leading to a significant supply-demand gap [3][4]. 2. Technological Adjustments: - The industry is experiencing a dynamic adjustment in technology paths due to supply chain constraints and regional demand imbalances. Gas turbines remain the primary technology, but there is a shift towards other technologies as well [4][5]. 3. Investment Opportunities: - The investment focus should be on segments with the tightest supply constraints, such as gas turbine hot-end components and large-bore engines. There is also potential in domestic and export replacements, as well as companies that are well-positioned within global supply chains [7][12]. 4. Service Market Growth: - The global gas turbine service market is projected to grow from $38 billion in 2023 to approximately $87 billion by 2033, indicating a significant compound annual growth rate [8]. 5. Gas Internal Combustion Engines: - Gas internal combustion engines, particularly medium-speed engines, are gaining traction due to their cost-effectiveness and shorter delivery times compared to gas turbines. The cost per kilowatt-hour for medium-speed engines is competitive, making them attractive for specific applications [9][10]. 6. Diesel Generators: - Diesel generators are recognized as essential backup power sources, especially in data centers. The demand for diesel generators is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size increase from over $11 billion in 2025 to approximately $16.5 billion by 2029 [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - Market Concentration: - The gas turbine market is highly concentrated, with a few key players dominating the supply chain. This concentration leads to rigid supply constraints, particularly in the production of critical components like hot-end blades [6][7]. - Company Recommendations: - Key companies highlighted include: - Jereh: Strong performance in gas turbine manufacturing and global supply chain advantages [12]. - Inflow: Focused on hot-end components with strong order visibility and partnerships with major global players [13]. - Haomai: A leading supplier of cold-end components with stable growth prospects [14]. - Dongfang Electric: A major domestic player with a significant market share and potential for valuation appreciation [15]. - LianDe: Positioned well across multiple segments with a focus on efficiency and cost reduction [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the gas turbine industry and its investment landscape.