大摩闭门会：市场观点：从主题视角审视市场波动性

Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the investment themes identified by Morgan Stanley for 2026, focusing on four core themes: Artificial Intelligence, Energy Future, Multipolar World, and Social Change [1][2] Key Points and Arguments 1. Core Themes for 2026 - The four key themes for 2026 are: - Artificial Intelligence (AI) - Energy Future - Multipolar World - Social Change (an evolution of last year's theme on Longevity) [1][2] 2. Evolution of Artificial Intelligence - Significant advancements in AI and text diffusion are expected, particularly in the development of Large Language Models (LLMs) [2] - U.S. LLM developers are anticipated to have ten times the computational power compared to last year, leading to unprecedented model capabilities [2] - Chinese models are expected to lag due to insufficient computational resources, although they excel in providing low-cost solutions for practical business scenarios [2] - A mismatch between the demand and supply of computational power is projected, with demand expected to systematically exceed supply, making computational power a scarce resource [3] 3. Energy Future - The energy landscape has changed significantly over the past year, with a notable power gap in the U.S. data centers estimated at approximately 47 GW, even accounting for innovative power supply solutions [5] - Rising electricity costs for consumers are increasingly being attributed to data centers, leading to negative public sentiment and potential delays or cancellations of planned data center projects [5] 4. Multipolar World Dynamics - The multipolar theme has gained prominence, driven by aggressive U.S. policy agendas aimed at manufacturing return and military spending on new technologies [6] - The relationship between AI technology transfer and rare earth elements is highlighted, with potential pressures from China on the U.S. regarding AI technology in exchange for rare earth supplies [6] 5. Social Change and Labor Market Impact - The social change theme encompasses issues related to aging populations and the impact of AI on the labor market, with an estimated 90% of jobs expected to be affected by AI [8] - The focus is on how job roles will evolve rather than outright job losses, with many workers expected to adapt through skill reshaping [8] 6. Performance of Investment Themes - In 2025, the thematic stocks under the four core themes outperformed the MSCI World Index by 16 percentage points and the S&P 500 Index by 27 percentage points [8] - The top-performing categories were driven by the multipolar world theme, particularly in critical minerals, AI semiconductors, and defense sectors [8] Other Important Insights - The interplay between the identified themes is crucial, as they are not isolated but rather intersecting, leading to broader market implications [2] - The discussion emphasizes the importance of long-term signals over short-term market noise, particularly in high-volatility periods [1]