美国股票策略：软件的 “终局” 何在-US Equity Strategy_ How “Terminal” Is Software__ How _Terminal_ Is Software_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the analysis is on the Software & Services industry, particularly in the context of AI disruption and its impact on terminal values and market valuations [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights - Terminal Multiple Compression: The recent selloff in the Software & Services sector is attributed to concerns over AI-related disruptions, leading to a compression of terminal multiples. A -10% terminal multiple compression is largely priced in, with potential for further cuts of -20% to -30% if market conditions worsen [1][2][3][4]. - Margin Trends: Current pretax margins in the Software & Services sector have reached historic highs. However, a reversion to trend margins could result in a -10% to -30% compression in terminal P/E multiples, indicating significant valuation risks [3][15][17]. - Valuation Metrics: Relative valuation metrics for the Software & Services industry have reverted to early 2023 levels, suggesting a significant correction. However, caution is advised as these levels may represent valuation traps [4][34]. Trading Activity - ETF Trading Volumes: There have been spikes in trading volumes and implied volatility for software ETFs, indicating a potential selling crescendo. This suggests that a period of more stable price action may follow [5][39][40][41]. - Idiosyncratic Performance: The lack of stock-specific dispersion in ETF trading implies that future performance may be more idiosyncratic, with varying impacts from AI disruption across different companies [5][12]. Market Sentiment - Short-term Outlook: While the near-term fundamentals remain robust, the market is rapidly adjusting expectations for future margins and growth prospects. A short-term reprieve from selling pressure is anticipated, but the underlying concerns regarding terminal values will persist [2][13][43]. - Microsoft's Influence: Microsoft (MSFT) has a significant weight in the Software & Services sector, and its performance directly impacts the broader industry. The stock has experienced an -18% drawdown since its earnings report, which correlates with the industry's performance [10][44]. Conclusion - The Software & Services sector is currently facing significant challenges due to AI disruption concerns, leading to terminal multiple compression and valuation corrections. While some stabilization is expected, the risk of business model disruption remains a critical factor for investors to consider moving forward [43][31].