Ryder(R) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, Ryder achieved comparable earnings per share of $1,292, more than double the $595 reported in 2018, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17%, up from 13% in 2018 [11][12] - Operating cash flow increased to $2.6 billion in 2025, up more than 50% from $1.7 billion in 2018 [11][12] - For the fourth quarter, operating revenue was $2.6 billion, consistent with the prior year, while comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.59, up 4% from the previous year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) operating revenue decreased by 1%, with pre-tax earnings down to $136 million due to weaker market conditions [14] - Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) operating revenue increased by 3%, but earnings decreased by 8% due to lost business and customer production shutdowns [16] - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) saw a 4% decrease in operating revenue, but EBT was above the prior year due to lower bad debt and acquisition synergies [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economic growth is expected to be modest in 2026, with no significant change in freight market conditions anticipated [22] - Class 8 production is forecasted to decline by 4% in 2026, impacting overall market dynamics [22] - Rental demand remains weak, with utilization rates dropping to 66% in January from 74% in December [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder's balanced growth strategy focuses on operational excellence, customer-centric innovation, and profitable growth, with a significant shift towards asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses [6][9] - The company is investing in customer-centric technology, including AI enhancements to improve operational efficiencies and customer service [8][9] - Ryder aims to leverage its high-quality contractual portfolio, which generates over 90% of its revenue, to support strategic growth opportunities [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver increasing value to customers and shareholders despite current market challenges [22] - The outlook for 2026 includes expected operating revenue growth of approximately 3% and a comparable EPS increase of 12% at the high end of the forecast range [22][23] - Management noted that the earnings power of the contractual portfolio is expected to drive higher operating cash flow and support capital deployment capacity [19] Other Important Information - Ryder has generated $3 billion in free cash flow since 2021 and has repurchased 24% of shares outstanding while increasing the quarterly dividend by 57% [12] - The company expects to realize another $70 million in incremental benefits from strategic initiatives in 2026, bringing the total expected annual benefit to $170 million [12][29] - Ryder's balance sheet remains strong, with leverage at 250% at year-end, providing ample capacity for capital allocation priorities [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Variability in EPS guidance for 2026 - Management indicated that the largest variability lies within the transactional business, particularly related to maintenance and omnichannel optimization initiatives [35][36] Question: Used vehicle sales expectations - Management expects a gradual improvement in used vehicle sales throughout the year, with Q1 consistent with Q4 levels [38][39] Question: Impact of market conditions on rental and used vehicle sales - Management noted that while there are signs of capacity exiting the market, they have not yet seen a meaningful improvement in rental and used vehicle sales [41][62] Question: Flex operating structure benefits - The flex operating structure is expected to optimize back-office resources and improve driver allocation, potentially offsetting margin headwinds in the dedicated business [59] Question: Performance of Supply Chain Solutions - Management highlighted a record sales year in 2025 for Supply Chain Solutions, with new business expected to layer in throughout 2026 [44][60]