Ryder(R) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, Ryder's comparable earnings per share were $1,292, more than double the $595 in 2018, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17%, up from 13% in 2018 [12][25] - Operating cash flow increased to $2.6 billion in 2025, up more than 50% from 2018 [12][21] - Fourth quarter operating revenue was $2.6 billion, in line with the prior year, with comparable earnings per share from continuing operations at $3.59, up 4% from the prior year [15][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) operating revenue decreased by 1%, with pre-tax earnings down to $136 million due to weaker market conditions [16] - Supply Chain operating revenue increased by 3%, but earnings decreased by 8% due to lost business and customer production shutdowns [18] - Dedicated operating revenue decreased by 4%, but EBT was above the prior year due to lower bad debt and acquisition synergies [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economic growth is expected to be modest in 2026, with no significant change in freight market conditions anticipated [24] - U.S. Class 8 production is forecasted to decline by 4% in 2026 [24] - Rental demand was below the prior year, with rental utilization on the power fleet at 72%, down from 73% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder's balanced growth strategy focuses on operational excellence, customer-centric innovation, and profitable growth, with a significant shift towards asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses [8][10] - The company aims to optimize its omnichannel retail warehouse network and enhance proprietary technologies through AI [9][10] - Ryder's capital allocation priorities include investing in organic growth, strategic investments, and returning capital to shareholders [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver increasing value to customers and shareholders despite current market challenges [24][36] - The outlook for 2026 includes expected operating revenue growth of approximately 3% and a comparable EPS increase of 12% at the high end of the forecast range [24][25] - Management noted that the earnings power of the contractual portfolio is expected to drive higher operating cash flow and incremental debt capacity [21][22] Other Important Information - Ryder has generated $3 billion in free cash flow since 2021 and has repurchased 24% of shares outstanding [14][22] - The company expects to realize another $70 million in incremental benefits from strategic initiatives in 2026, bringing the total expected annual benefit to $170 million [13][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Variability in EPS guidance for 2026 - Management indicated that the largest variability lies within the transactional business, particularly related to maintenance and omnichannel optimization [38][40] Question: Used vehicle sales expectations - Management expects Q1 to be consistent with Q4, with gradual improvement anticipated as the year progresses [45][46] Question: Impact of market conditions on rental and used vehicle sales - Management noted that while there are signs of capacity exiting the market, the impact on used vehicle pricing for Ryder is expected to be minimal [52][53] Question: Flex operating structure benefits - Management highlighted that the flex model is expected to optimize back-office resources and reduce driver dwell time, potentially offsetting margin headwinds in the dedicated business [86] Question: Performance of Supply Chain division - Management reported a record sales year in 2025 for the Supply Chain division, with expectations for continued growth driven by new business [54][56]