Restaurant Brands International(QSR) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company delivered comparable sales growth of 2.4%, net restaurant growth of 2.9%, and system-wide sales growth of 5.3% [30] - Organic adjusted operating income (AOI) growth was 8.3%, and nominal adjusted EPS growth was 10.7% [30][29] - The company achieved its third consecutive year of approximately 8% organic adjusted operating income growth, demonstrating consistency within the industry [6][48] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tim Hortons Canada and International delivered 19 consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales, with comparable sales in Canada growing 2.8% in Q4 2025 [7][9] - The International segment saw comparable sales growth of 4.9% for the full year, including 6.1% in Q4, and net restaurant growth of 4.9% [13][14] - Burger King U.S. achieved comparable sales growth of 1.6% for the full year, including 2.6% in Q4, outperforming the burger QSR industry in 9 out of the last 12 quarters [18][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Canada, Tim Hortons faced macroeconomic uncertainty but still delivered solid performance, with breakfast food sales growing 3.5% [9][10] - The international segment, particularly in markets like France and Australia, experienced strong performance, with double-digit system-wide sales growth [14][16] - Burger King China reported comparable sales growth of 9.2% in Q4, driven by improvements in restaurant fundamentals and growth in delivery [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth, with plans to return to a 99% franchise business model and accelerate net restaurant growth to 5%+ [8][41] - The company is refranchising Burger King restaurants ahead of schedule and has established a joint venture with CPE for Burger King China to drive growth [3][29] - The strategy includes a disciplined approach to capital allocation and a focus on operational consistency across all brands [42][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that 2025 was a challenging year due to elevated costs and macroeconomic pressures, but the fundamentals of the business are improving [42][43] - The company expects to ramp back towards 5% unit growth by the end of the algorithm period, with a positive outlook for 2026 [31][41] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to build on the momentum from 2025, emphasizing the strength of the franchisee base and operational improvements [29][48] Other Important Information - The company generated nearly $1.6 billion of free cash flow in 2025 and returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends [34] - The company plans to increase its dividend target by roughly 5% to $2.60 per share, marking the 14th consecutive year of dividend growth [34] - Franchisee profitability at Tim Hortons remained resilient at approximately CAD 295,000 despite cost pressures [12][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the comparable sales evolution and trajectory in 2026, particularly for Tim Hortons and Burger King? - Management indicated that the positive Q4 sets a good foundation for 2026, with expectations for a similar consumer environment and continued focus on fundamentals [53] Question: How much of the international momentum is driven by a healthier backdrop versus share gains? - Management noted that the momentum is a combination of a supportive structural market and effective local strategies, with strong performance in EMEA and Asia Pacific [60][62] Question: How do you view the strength of the fast food market in Europe compared to the U.S. and Canada? - Management highlighted consistent positive performance across major Western European markets and noted that Canada also showed positive sales growth across all day parts [71]