未知机构：2026年房地产市场前低后高全年板块或迎来两大拐点25年房-20260213

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend in 2026, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [1][3]. - The real estate market and investment continue to face adjustment pressures in 2025 [1][3]. Short-term Strategies - Short-term measures should focus on destocking and boosting demand and confidence to stabilize the market [1][3]. - Support for reasonable financing needs of real estate companies is essential to stabilize investment [1][3]. - Immediate policy interventions are necessary to prevent a sharp market decline [1][3]. Long-term Strategies - In the medium to long term, there is a need to guide real estate companies to actively transform from increasing investment development value to enhancing service operation value [2][3]. - Development models and systems require updates to adapt to changing market conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing market weakness is primarily due to supply-demand mismatches and weak expectations regarding future housing prices [4]. - Recommendations include: 1. Government side (G-end): Utilize land reserves and urban renewal to absorb supply and create demand [4]. 2. Business side (B-end): Activate existing assets through securitization and restructuring to shift supply [4]. 3. Consumer side (C-end): Adjust administrative, provident fund, and fiscal policies to boost consumer demand and digest supply [4]. Investment Trends - Real estate investment continues to weaken, largely due to significant financial pressures on developers [5]. - Key predictions for 2026 include: 1. Sales area of 810 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year [6]. 2. Average sales price of 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year [6]. 3. Sales amount of 7.4 trillion yuan, down 12% year-on-year [6]. 4. Investment of 6.9 trillion yuan, down 16% year-on-year [6]. 5. New construction area of 480 million square meters, down 18% year-on-year [6]. 6. Completed area of 490 million square meters, down 19% year-on-year [6]. - The main market contradiction has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuously falling prices," particularly in the second-hand housing market [6]. Market Outlook - The decline in the second-hand housing market further impacts the transaction volume of new homes [7]. - Overall liquidity is shrinking, leading to weakened demand that affects developers' investment and subsequently drags down the economy [8]. - 2026 is seen as the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for the real estate market to improve under the central economic work conference's goal of stabilizing investment [8]. - Two potential turning points are anticipated: a "policy turning point" around the end of Q1 and a "fundamental turning point" around Q4 [8]. - The "policy turning point" may reflect increased policy enthusiasm on both supply and demand sides, while the "fundamental turning point" will be indicated by a narrowing decline in second-hand housing prices [8]. Investment Recommendations - Despite expected declines in real estate sales, investment, and new construction in 2026, the rate of decline is anticipated to be less severe than in 2025 [8]. - Investment opportunities may arise in the real estate sector throughout 2026, with a focus on companies that have adequately accounted for impairments in 2025, as well as those that have proactively adapted to new business models [11]. - Suggested companies for investment include China Resources, Binjiang, Zhaoshang, Yuexiu, Jianfa, Poly Real Estate, and others involved in new consumption opportunities [11]. Risk Factors - Key risks include policies not being implemented as expected, continued declines in sales and housing prices, and slower-than-expected recovery of market confidence [12].