基本金属：锌-2026 年将处于供应过剩，但若中国出口需求启动，LME 跨期价差存在上行空间-Base Metals Analyst_ Zinc_ 2026 Surplus, but Upside to LME Timespreads if Chinese Exports Required

Summary of Zinc Market Analysis Industry Overview - The report focuses on the zinc market, particularly the dynamics between China and the global market, with insights into pricing, supply, and demand trends for the years leading up to 2026 and beyond [3][4][5]. Key Points Zinc Pricing and Market Dynamics - The LME zinc price rose over 20% from April 2025 to December 2025, reaching approximately $3,400 per ton, driven by tightening in the ex-China market and speculative inflows into industrial metals [3][4]. - LME inventory decreased significantly from over 300,000 tons in December 2024 to just 47,000 tons by October 2025, contributing to a steep backwardation in LME timespreads during Q4 2025 [4]. Supply and Demand Projections - A small surplus in both the global and ex-China zinc markets is expected in 2026, with a projected 3% year-over-year increase in ex-China refined zinc output, following two years of decline [4][5]. - Demand growth is anticipated to remain steady at approximately 2% year-over-year, with China expected to meet its domestic demand using only domestic production from 2026 onward, despite still relying on concentrate imports [5][24]. China's Role in the Zinc Market - China transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of zinc in late 2025, easing previous market tightness [4][10]. - The report suggests that while sustained Chinese exports are not currently necessary to balance the global market, China will increasingly supply the market during temporary tightness [5][25]. Future Market Conditions - The report anticipates a slowdown in mine supply growth in 2027 and 2028, which could lead the ex-China market into a deficit [5][6]. - The zinc supply growth in China is expected to continue, allowing it to meet domestic demand without relying on imports for refined zinc [5][19]. Export Arbitrage and Timespreads - The lack of a tolling model in the Chinese zinc industry means that LME timespreads must tighten significantly to incentivize exports from China during periods of market tightness [26][33]. - The report identifies a potential opportunity to go long on the September-December 2026 timespread if it returns to contango, indicating favorable conditions for investment [26][31]. Demand Growth Expectations - Global zinc demand is projected to grow by about 2% year-over-year in 2026, with a slight acceleration in China due to improved infrastructure demand, despite ongoing weakness in real estate construction [24][25]. Additional Insights - The report highlights that the concentrate tightness that previously constrained ex-China refined zinc production has eased, with a significant inventory build-up expected to be worked through over the next two years [14][19]. - The dynamics of the zinc market are influenced by various factors, including mine supply growth, domestic production capabilities in China, and the interplay of global demand trends [5][24]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the zinc market, emphasizing the critical role of China and the expected shifts in supply and demand dynamics leading into 2026.