中国股票策略：春节前 A 股市场情绪再度走弱-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Dropped Again Ahead of CNY

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the A-share market in China, highlighting investor sentiment and market dynamics ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Investor Sentiment: The MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) has dropped significantly, with a decrease of 12 percentage points to 45% as of February 11, 2026. The 1-month moving average (1MMA) remains stable at 68% [2]. - Trading Activity: Average daily trading (ADT) for ChiNext, A-shares, and margin transactions has decreased by 18% (to RMB 587 billion), 22% (to RMB 2,134 billion), and 39% (to RMB 405 billion) respectively. Margin transactions outstanding decreased by 2% (to RMB 2,637 billion) [2]. - Foreign Investment: There was a net inflow of US$2.3 billion from southbound trading during February 5-11, with year-to-date (YTD) and month-to-date (MTD) net inflows reaching US$13.4 billion and US$4.4 billion respectively [3]. - Earnings Estimates: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative but shows slight improvement. A-share pre-announcements for Q4 2025 have deteriorated to -14.8%, primarily due to weakness in mid- and small-cap stocks, while MSCI China shows a net positive of 5.5% [15]. Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI Trends: January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate that imported inflation is affecting PPI, but the impact on domestic reflation is limited due to a housing downturn and excess capacity. The CPI is expected to rise above 1% YoY in February, while the PPI is tracking at or above 1% annually, lower than the previous forecast of 1.8% [4]. Additional Important Insights - Liquidity Conditions: The liquidity backdrop in China remains supportive, with strong IPO activities and capital allocation into A-shares due to rising bond yields and less favorable term deposit terms. Mutual fund inflows from the US and EU to China reached US$9 billion in January, the highest since October 2024 [15]. - Market Dynamics: The national team has sold approximately US$83 billion since mid-January, reversing all post-2024 inflows, indicating potential easing of selling pressure. Retail activity in A-shares has improved, with new accounts and small order net inflows hitting post-2025 highs [15]. Methodology and Data Sources - The MSASI is constructed using 12 individual indicators that capture various dimensions of investor sentiment and market activity, normalized to reduce noise and reflect medium-term sentiment trends [17][18][19]. - The report utilizes data from sources such as CEIC, Bloomberg, Wind, and RIMES, with the latest data as of February 11, 2026 [11][60]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the A-share market, investor sentiment, trading activity, and economic indicators.