未知机构：中信科技小米集团跟踪点评1月销量2026年1月小米汽车交-20260213

Summary of Xiaomi Group Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Xiaomi Group - Industry: Automotive and Consumer Electronics Key Points Sales Performance - In January 2026, Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles, a decrease from over 50,000 in December 2025 [1] - The decline in deliveries is attributed to: 1. The discontinuation of the first-generation SU7, with production lines being reconfigured for the new generation SU7 set to launch in April 2026 [1] 2. January had 21 working days, two fewer than December [1] - Future outlook suggests further decline in deliveries due to the impact of the Chinese New Year in February [1] Vehicle Pipeline - At least two key models are expected to launch in 2026: 1. The new generation SU7, which will officially launch in April 2026 [2] 2. The YU9 model, part of the range-extended platform, is undergoing road tests and is expected to launch in the second half of 2026 [2] - The YU7GT model has completed the necessary regulatory filings and is anticipated to be released within the year [2] - Xiaomi's target for 2026 is to deliver 550,000 vehicles, which is considered conservative compared to the previous year's performance of over 410,000 vehicles [2] - With the introduction of new models and potential capacity releases, the forecast for 2026 deliveries is adjusted to 660,000 electric vehicles [2] Cost Pressures - Storage Costs: The proportion of storage costs in the Bill of Materials (BOM) for Xiaomi smartphones is expected to rise from 10-15% to 20-30% by Q4 2025, impacting the gross margin to approximately 9% [3] - Battery Costs: The cost of lithium batteries is increasing, with a projected rise in battery costs by approximately 5,640 RMB per vehicle due to significant price increases in lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate [4] - Overall, the smartphone industry is facing challenges from declining shipments and increased competition in the white goods market, leading to a downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue expectations for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 461.2 billion, 541.8 billion, and 600.5 billion RMB respectively, down from previous estimates [4] - Non-IFRS net profit projections have also been revised to 40 billion, 36.2 billion, and 50.2 billion RMB for the same period [4] Valuation and Target Price - The company is valued using a 30x PE ratio, resulting in a total market capitalization of approximately 1.31 trillion HKD [5] - A target price of 47 HKD is set, maintaining a "Buy" rating for the stock [5]