Moody’s(MCO) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's total revenue for 2025 exceeded $7.7 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase [5][6] - Adjusted diluted EPS reached a record $14.94, up 20% year-over-year, indicating a 70% earnings growth over the past three years [7] - Adjusted operating margin expanded to 51.1%, an increase of 300 basis points [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ratings revenue grew by 9%, with $6.6 trillion of debt rated in 2025, marking an all-time high [8] - Private credit revenue in MIS grew by nearly 60% in 2025, reflecting strong demand [9] - Moody's Analytics revenue grew by 9%, with an adjusted operating margin improvement of 240 basis points to 33.1% [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter of 2025 was the busiest in Moody's history, with significant issuance from major companies related to AI investments [8] - KYC solutions experienced 15% ARR growth, driven by deeper penetration with existing banking customers and expansion into non-financial sectors [30] - Insurance solutions saw a 7% ARR growth, supported by demand for sophisticated models and cloud-based platforms [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focusing on embedding decision-grade contextual intelligence into customer workflows and expanding its AI capabilities [5][20] - The company is strategically investing in areas aligned with global funding needs, including infrastructure, AI investment, and digital finance [21][22] - Moody's plans to enhance its product offerings in lending, KYC, and insurance, with a focus on AI integration and customer experience [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the business model and the ability to generate strong cash flow while investing in high-return areas [20] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for revenue growth in the high single-digit percent range and an adjusted operating margin expansion of 150 basis points [42] - Management noted that the demand for trusted data and analytics will continue to grow as AI becomes more prevalent [20][68] Other Important Information - Moody's divested its learning solutions business, which is expected to improve revenue growth profiles going forward [78] - The company anticipates a notable increase in capital expenditures for the build-out of new headquarters [43] - Moody's plans to repurchase approximately $2 billion in shares and increase its quarterly dividend by 10% [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Portfolio perspective for MA - Management feels confident about the current assets and capabilities, emphasizing the importance of trusted data for AI [45][46] Question: AI contribution to ARR revenue - Management indicated that while AI engagement is strong, it has not yet fully translated into ARR revenue, with growth expected to trickle through the customer base over time [50][54] Question: Issuance trajectory for ratings - Management expects issuance activity to be more heavily weighted towards the first half of the year, with a growth forecast in the high single-digit range for the first half of 2026 [58][60] Question: Impact of divestitures on MA revenue guide - The divestiture of learning solutions is expected to have a one percentage point headwind to MCO revenue growth and a two percentage point headwind to MA revenue growth [77][78] Question: MIS margin guidance - Management noted that the MIS margin guidance is better than expected due to strong operating leverage and disciplined capital allocation [82]