FiscalNote (NYSE:NOTE) Update / briefing Transcript

FiscalNote Update Summary Company Overview - Company: FiscalNote (NYSE: NOTE) - Industry: Political prediction markets and data analytics Key Points and Arguments Market Opportunity - The way information is consumed and acted upon is rapidly changing, presenting new market opportunities for FiscalNote [3][4] - FiscalNote has a strong foundation with thousands of policy professionals relying on its data and analysis, which is difficult to replicate [3] - The expansion into political prediction markets is seen as a natural evolution of FiscalNote's existing capabilities [4] Growth in Prediction Markets - Global trading volume in prediction markets surged, with U.S. volumes hitting over $44 billion in 2025, representing a 400% year-over-year growth [8] - Political markets accounted for approximately $7.2 billion in 2025, with expectations for continued growth [8] - The market is still early and underdeveloped, making it an attractive entry point for FiscalNote [5] Regulatory Environment - The CFTC's withdrawal of the ban on political and sports event contracts has enabled significant market growth [10][22] - Regulatory clarity is expected to improve, which will support the development of prediction markets [22] Competitive Advantage - FiscalNote's deep knowledge and experience in political prediction markets position it uniquely to capitalize on this growth [17] - The combination of FiscalNote's domain expertise and 365 Prediction's iGaming experience is expected to create a differentiated product [18] Product Development and Innovation - FiscalNote plans to launch products that address existing market concerns, such as credibility and ethical considerations [23][24] - The company aims to create a subscription service for tips on political outcomes, leveraging its AI capabilities [32] - Plans to explore fantasy leagues around political outcomes as a way to engage users without waiting for regulatory changes [33] Ethical Considerations - There are concerns about the perception of betting on political outcomes; FiscalNote aims to position prediction markets as tools for advocacy and awareness [25][26] - Existing relationships with advocacy organizations will be leveraged to create a more constructive market environment [26][27] Strategic Partnerships - Partnerships, particularly with 365 Prediction, are crucial for leveraging existing market infrastructure and capabilities [6][17] - The collaboration is expected to enhance market design and integrity, which are essential for successful market making [20][21] Future Outlook - FiscalNote is not pivoting away from its core business but is extending its capabilities into new markets [35] - The company is focused on leveraging its existing strengths to explore new opportunities in prediction markets and beyond [35] Additional Important Content - The discussion highlighted the historical context of prediction markets, originating from academic experiments to improve outcome predictions [12][14] - The integration of prediction market data into professional workflows is growing, indicating a shift towards institutional relevance [5] - The potential for prediction markets to hedge policy and regulatory risks was noted as a significant opportunity [5]