未知机构：东吴电新美国储能对美出口关税边际下降OBBB总体符合预期继续看好储能需-20260224

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the energy storage industry, particularly regarding exports to the United States and the implications of recent legal and regulatory changes affecting tariffs and demand growth. Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Changes: On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the "Find Books" act were illegal. This decision may lead to the cancellation of tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, which currently stand at 10% for energy storage systems [1] 2. Adjustment of Tariffs: Following the Supreme Court ruling, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on global goods, which was later increased to 15%. This adjustment is expected to reduce the total tariff rate on China's energy storage system exports to the U.S. from 48.4% to approximately 43.4% [1] 3. Impact on Exports: The reduction in tariff pressure is seen as beneficial for China's energy storage system exports, potentially enhancing competitiveness in the U.S. market [1] 4. OBBB Act Compliance: The OBBB Act's implementation in February aligns with expectations, although there are stricter technical authorization limits and a new MACR calculation method that requires penetration into raw materials, which is slightly more stringent than anticipated [2] 5. Demand Growth: Despite the regulatory changes, the demand for large-scale energy storage in the U.S. is expected to grow by 20-30% this year, driven by AI data centers and the limited domestic production capacity of battery cells and iron-lithium technology [2] 6. Reliance on Chinese Manufacturers: The U.S. is likely to continue relying on Chinese manufacturers for overseas production capacity, especially in scenarios where there is a shortage of electricity, leading to direct procurement from Chinese battery and system suppliers without considering subsidies [2] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends strong investment in CATL (宁德时代) and Sungrow (阳光电源), as current valuations reflect pessimistic expectations and are at the bottom [2] - Additional recommendations include EVE Energy (亿纬锂能) and Haitian Technology (海博思创), with positive outlooks on Canadian Solar (阿特斯), China Innovation (中创新航), and BYD (比亚迪), while also monitoring Penghui Energy (鹏辉能源) [2]