中国-香港消费 - 农历新年后餐饮及黄金珠宝渠道调研要点ChinaHong Kong Consumer-Post-CNY F&B and Gold & Jewelry Channel Check Takeaways

Summary of Conference Call on China/Hong Kong Consumer Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China/Hong Kong Consumer sector, particularly in the Food & Beverage (F&B) and Gold & Jewelry categories, reflecting an improvement in demand during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday season, aligning with market expectations and previous channel checks [1][9]. Key Insights by Category Liquor - Moutai and Wuliangye (WLY): Both brands experienced year-to-date (YTD) growth due to lower pricing, with Moutai's Feitian orders for Q1 completed at 40% of the annual budget. Moutai's sales increased by 30% YTD, while WLY saw a 10% increase after price adjustments [3][11]. - Laojiao: This brand opted for stable pricing, resulting in a 30% decline in volume YTD [3][11]. - Price Sensitivity: Demand for low-end liquor (Rmb100-300) and high-end products (Moutai and WLY) grew, while other price ranges declined [3]. Dairy - Yili: Reported a 3% sales growth in liquid milk, with a growth target of 4-6% for 2026 [4][11]. - Mengniu: Achieved 1-2% growth in liquid milk sales [4][11]. Beer - Budweiser: Experienced a narrowing decline, with a target of -5% or above for 2026 [4][11]. - Heineken: Reported growth of 20% in 2025, with a target of 15% or above for 2026 [4][11]. - On-Trade vs. Off-Trade: The on-trade/off-trade mix shifted to 58%/42% from 63%/37% previously, indicating a change in consumer purchasing behavior [11]. Beverages - Nongfu Spring: Achieved a 12.5% growth in water sales, with a focus on larger bottle sizes and sugarless tea, which grew by 26% [4][11]. - Tingyi/UPC: Saw flat or declining sales YTD [4][11]. Gold & Jewelry - Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK): Reported positive same-store sales growth (SSSG) in 12 franchise stores, driven by increased sales volume but lower average ticket size, averaging around Rmb5,000 compared to Rmb10,000-15,000 last CNY [5][11]. Additional Observations - Overall demand improved better than expected due to longer CNY holidays, warm weather, and improved consumer sentiment. However, consumers remain price-sensitive, leading to a binary performance among brands, particularly in liquor and beverages [9]. - The distributor's retail sales grew by 5.6% year-over-year from the beginning of the year to February 15, 2026, despite a softening in per capita spending [11]. Conclusion - The feedback from the distributor indicates a gradual recovery in the consumer sector, with preferences shifting towards value-oriented products. The outlook for the first half of 2026 remains cautiously optimistic, with a preference for sectors such as restaurants, beer, IP products, dairy, and OEM apparel [9].