ABF 基板 - 将欣兴电子（Unimicron）和南亚 PCB（NYPCB）评级上调至超配-Global Technology -ABF Substrates – Upgrading Unimicron and NYPCB to OW

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the ABF (Ajinomoto Build-Up Film) substrates market, which is experiencing an up-cycle driven by AI demand and a significant shift in end-market applications. [1][11][12] Core Insights - Market Growth Forecast: The ABF substrate market is projected to grow at a 16.1% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, compared to 9.0% CAGR over the past five years. [11][53] - Demand Shift: The demand for PC-related applications is expected to decline to approximately 15% by 2030 from 70% in 2015, while AI-related applications will rise to about 75% from 10% in the same period. [11][12] - Earnings Growth: Unimicron and NYPCB are upgraded to Overweight (OW) with forecasts of 105% CAGR and 113% CAGR in earnings growth from 2025 to 2028, respectively. [4] - Price Targets: New price targets for Unimicron and NYPCB are set at NT$500 (up from NT$120.75) and NT$515 (up from NT$165), indicating potential upsides of 36% and 24%. [4] Company-Specific Insights - Unimicron and NYPCB: Both companies are expected to benefit significantly from the AI-driven up-cycle, with attractive PEG ratios of 0.3x and 0.5x based on new price targets. [4] - SEMCO: Maintained an Overweight (OW) rating with a price target increase to KRW430,000 from KRW309,000. [4] - Ibiden: Downgraded to Underweight (UW) due to overheated earnings expectations, despite still forecasting earnings growth of 26% in F26, 23% in F27, and 41% in F28. [5] Market Dynamics - Supply and Demand Imbalance: The ABF substrate market is expected to face undersupply starting from 2027, which will exert upward pressure on pricing. [11][47] - T-glass Supply Constraint: A significant constraint on T-glass supply is noted, which is crucial for high-end segments. This constraint is expected to impact lower-end segments more severely. [14][92][110] - Investment Trends: There has been a notable increase in capital expenditures (capex) among ABF substrate suppliers, with a jump from approximately US$2.9 billion in 2020 to US$5.5 billion in 2022. [39] Risks - Potential risks include a downturn in AI demand, T-glass supply constraints being more severe than anticipated, and the possibility of new ABF capacity announcements. [17] Conclusion - The ABF substrate market is entering a robust growth phase driven by AI demand, with significant investment and strategic upgrades in key companies. The anticipated undersupply from 2027 onwards presents both opportunities and risks for investors in this sector. [1][53][47]