铠侠控股：电话会议纪要- 价格上行趋势将延续，但对估值倍数维持中性看法

Kioxia Holdings Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Kioxia Holdings (285A.T) - Industry: Semiconductor, specifically NAND flash memory Key Points from the Conference Call 3Q Results - Volume and Pricing: 3Q results were roughly in line with guidance; however, average selling prices (ASP) exceeded expectations, rising by a low-teens percentage quarter-over-quarter (qoq) [2] - Sales Mix: Approximately 60% of SSD and storage sales were for data center/enterprise applications, with just under 20% sold as NAND chips and over 40% as SSDs. The sales mix remained largely unchanged from 2Q, although the ratio of SSDs has increased slightly [2] 4Q Guidance - Shipment Volume: For 4Q (Jan-Mar), Kioxia expects bit shipment volume to decrease by about 10% qoq, consistent with the trend observed in FY3/25. Shipments for data center/enterprise applications are expected to increase qoq, while smart devices are anticipated to decline by more than 10% due to inventory levels and seasonality [3] - Price Trends: The price uptrend is expected to continue across all applications, with guidance reflecting mainly like-for-like price increases. Prices have been agreed for less than half of the planned shipments for 4Q [3] Outlook for FY3/27 Earnings - Growth Expectations: Kioxia anticipates CY26 bit shipment growth to be at least in line with market growth, projected at high-teens percentage year-over-year (yoy). The company expects quarter-over-quarter increases in every quarter following 4Q3/26 through the end of CY26 [4] - Cost Reductions: The effect of per-bit cost reductions is expected to become more pronounced as the transition from BiCS 5 to 8 is completed by the end of FY3/26 [4] Component Procurement and Capital Expenditure - DRAM Prices: Prices for DRAM used in enterprise SSDs are expected to rise, but Kioxia has already procured the necessary volume for FY3/27 eSSD production. The company aims to mitigate the impact of rising prices by expanding sales of high-capacity products and passing on costs [7] - Capex Plans: Kioxia plans to focus on equipment investment for FY3/27 capex, estimating it to be around ¥400 billion. No additional investment in buildings and cleanrooms is anticipated until around FY3/30 [7] Valuation and Risks - Price Target: The 12-month target price is set at ¥24,000, implying a P/E of 6.0X for FY3/27E [8] - Key Risks: Risks include NAND industry cyclicality, high dependence on specific customers, capacity utilization trends, and the rise of NAND players in China [8] Financial Metrics - Market Capitalization: ¥12.1 trillion / $78.5 billion - Revenue Projections: Expected revenues for FY3/26E and FY3/27E are ¥2,236.2 billion and ¥4,887.1 billion, respectively [9] - Operating Profit: Projected operating profit for FY3/27E is ¥3,136.5 billion [9] - EPS: Expected EPS for FY3/27E is ¥3,995.8 [9] Additional Insights - Investment Rating: The company maintains a Neutral rating due to the historical P/E multiple trends in the NAND industry cycle, which typically remain in the mid-to-high single digits [1] - Market Dynamics: The company is navigating a complex market environment with fluctuating demand across different segments, particularly between enterprise and consumer applications [3][4] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from Kioxia Holdings' conference call, highlighting the company's performance, future guidance, and market positioning within the semiconductor industry.