美国经济分析：量化我们 2026 年增长预测的下行风险-US Economics Analyst_ Quantifying the Downside Risks to Our 2026 Growth Forecast

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economic outlook, specifically forecasting GDP growth for 2026 at 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis, which is 0.4 percentage points (pp) above consensus estimates. This growth is supported by tax cuts, reduced tariff impacts, and easier financial conditions [3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. GDP Growth Forecast: The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis, driven by tax cuts and easing financial conditions [3][6]. 2. Downside Risks: Five key downside risks to the growth forecast are identified: - Stock Market Correction: A sustained 10% decline in equity prices could reduce GDP growth by approximately 0.5pp due to decreased consumer spending and business investment [3][4][17]. - AI-Driven Labor Market Displacement: Increased deployment of AI could raise the unemployment rate by 0.5pp, negatively impacting consumer spending growth by about 0.4pp. However, if AI also boosts productivity, the net GDP effect could remain positive [21][24]. - Tariff Increases: An additional 5pp increase in effective tariff rates could raise core PCE inflation by 0.5pp and reduce GDP growth by 0.4pp due to its tax-like impact on consumers [35][40]. - Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices: A $10/barrel increase in oil prices could weigh on GDP growth by 0.05pp, as the negative impact on consumer spending is partially offset by increased energy capital expenditures [41][42]. - Private Credit Losses: If loan losses at private credit firms rise to 5%, GDP growth could decrease by 0.2pp, reflecting concerns over nonbank lending risks [45][52]. 3. Impact of Multiple Risks: The simultaneous occurrence of multiple risks, particularly a stock market correction combined with AI-driven labor displacement, could pose significant growth challenges, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively [4][56][57]. Additional Important Insights - Consumer Spending Dynamics: A stock market correction would disproportionately affect spending by higher-income households, leading to a net neutral effect on consumer spending throughout 2026 [10][17]. - AI's Dual Impact: While AI may displace jobs, it could also enhance productivity, suggesting a complex relationship between technological advancement and economic growth [24][28]. - Inflationary Pressures: The report highlights potential inflationary pressures from tariffs, with a scenario where tariff passthrough to consumer prices rises to 100%, leading to higher inflation and reduced consumer spending growth [36][40]. - Private Credit Market Valuations: Current valuations of private credit funds indicate market expectations of further loan losses, although the overall impact on GDP is expected to be moderate [46][51]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the US economy, emphasizing the interplay of various risks and their potential impacts on growth and consumer behavior.