YPF(US:YPF)2026-02-27 15:02Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a record-high EBITDA of $5 billion, marking the highest in the last 10 years and the third largest in company history, despite a 15% contraction in Brent prices [5][10] - Annual revenues totaled $18.4 billion, reflecting a modest decline of 4% compared to the previous year, primarily due to the significant drop in Brent prices [10][11] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 8% in 2025, with the EBITDA margin growing from 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2025 [11][12] - Free cash flow returned to positive territory in Q4 2025 at $261 million, driven by operational performance and proceeds from asset sales [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shale oil production grew by 42% year-on-year in December 2025, reaching 204,000 barrels per day, exceeding the target of 190,000 barrels per day [6][23] - Conventional oil production averaged 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, a 32% decline compared to 2024, with Q4 production dropping to 68,000 barrels per day [23][24] - The midstream and downstream segments achieved record-high operational results, with refinery utilization rates reaching almost 100% in Q4 2025 [7][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vaca Muerta shale reserves expanded by 32% in 2025, now accounting for 88% of total peak oil reserves, with a reserve replacement ratio of 3.2 times and a reserve life of 9 years [7][29] - The company maintained a solid 56% market share in domestic gasoline and diesel sales, which increases to 60% when including third-party gas stations [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a leading shale integrating company and a significant shale exporter, with a strategic shift towards unconventional operations [10][44] - Significant steps were taken in the development of the LNG project, with a commitment from international partners and a competitive LNG breakeven price positioning YPF for future leadership in the global LNG market [9][40] - The company executed a series of M&A transactions to enhance its portfolio, including acquiring world-class blocks in Vaca Muerta and divesting conventional assets [8][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the transformational year of 2025, emphasizing resilience and operational discipline despite volatile pricing environments [5] - The company expects to target shale oil production of approximately 215,000 barrels per day in 2026, with an exit rate of around 250,000 barrels per day [44] - The outlook for adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is estimated to range between $5.8 billion and $6.2 billion, driven by a strategic shift in production mix and efficiency programs [44] Other Important Information - The company successfully raised $3.7 billion in new funding during 2025, demonstrating strong market access and credibility [10][18] - Safety performance improved significantly, achieving a frequency rate of 0.09 accidents per million hours worked [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production targets and operational bottlenecks - Management expects to deliver between 200,000 to 210,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2026, with infrastructure improvements needed for higher production [48][49] Question: Well productivity and drilling inventory - YPF maintains a leading position in well productivity, with significant cost reductions achieved through competitive bidding processes [50][51] Question: Free cash flow profile and concentration - The company anticipates a neutral to slightly negative free cash flow position for 2026, influenced by CapEx and M&A activities [53][62] Question: Conventional asset investments and lifting costs - Management aims to exit conventional production entirely by the end of 2026, with expected lifting costs decreasing to around $7 per barrel [66][68]