Risen Energy(SZ:300118)2026-02-28 02:40Company and Industry Summary Company: 东方日升 (Eastern Sunrise) Key Points - Order Fulfillment and Supply Chain Transition The company has successfully fulfilled its p-HJT orders with North American clients, transitioning from a monthly order format to a more flexible supply chain model. This change allows for a shift from contract manufacturing to self-supply of raw materials once the supply chain is fully established. The expected shipment volume is approximately 200,000 pieces per month, corresponding to MW-level shipments [1][1]. - Current Manufacturing Model Currently, the company operates under a contract manufacturing model, sourcing silicon wafers and silver paste directly from clients, who pay for processing based on raw material costs. The company plans to streamline the supply chain for silicon wafers and paste, aiming to produce batteries directly, which are expected to be priced higher than the current PERC batteries (approximately 60 CNY/W). This shift is anticipated to significantly enhance profitability [1][1]. - Concerns Over Defects and Production Timeline Previous concerns regarding defects primarily stemmed from the company's transition to self-supplying battery cells after acquiring equipment from Maiwei. Given the lack of experience in p-type ultra-thin HJT technology, it is estimated that stable mass production in North America will take at least 1.5 to 2 years. Even if overseas clients achieve self-supply capabilities, they are likely to prefer the lower-cost solutions available from China due to significantly higher electricity and labor costs in the U.S. [2][2]. - Future Profitability Projections A simple profitability forecast indicates that with 10,000 V3 satellites, each requiring 100 kW, the future demand for solar battery cells from clients could exceed 1 GW. Currently, 东方日升 is the only qualified supplier for p-HJT technology. This demand translates to approximately 7 billion CNY in revenue, with a projected profit margin of 20%, resulting in around 1.5 billion CNY in profit. If this new business is valued at a 20x PE ratio, it could add 30 billion CNY in market value. Combined with the ground business and energy storage, which is valued at 10 billion CNY, the company could see a total market value of at least 40 billion CNY, indicating potential for further growth [2][2].