亚洲股票策略- 从 “轮动” 到 “配置” 思维在中国的转变-Asia Equity Strategy_ From a ‘rotation‘ to an ‘allocation‘ mindset in China

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Global Markets Strategy Call (February 22, 2026) Industry Overview - Focus on China: The call emphasizes a shift from a 'rotation' to an 'allocation' mindset regarding investments in China, indicating a more stable outlook for the Chinese market after a prolonged downcycle [2][8]. - Key Sectors: The report highlights significant advancements in AI, robotics, biotechnology, semiconductors, and fintech, which are expected to drive growth in the Chinese economy [2][8]. Core Insights - Market Recovery: J.P. Morgan believes that the four-year downcycle in China has ended, with multiple positive drivers emerging, including AI adoption and innovation in various sectors [2][8]. - Investment Targets: The base case targets for MXCN/CSI 300 are set at 100/5,200, with a bullish case suggesting potential upside to 120/6,200 by the end of 2026 [2][15]. - EPS Growth: The broader market is expected to deliver 12-15% EPS growth over 2026-27, with valuation multiples around 12x forward P/E, which is considered attractive compared to global equities [14][15]. Key Drivers of Growth - Innovation: Significant progress in AI, with companies like Alibaba, Bytedance, and Xiaomi leading the charge. The focus is on embedding AI capabilities in production processes [5][39]. - Robotics and Semiconductors: The robotics sector is rapidly advancing, particularly in humanoid robots, while the semiconductor industry is benefiting from strong domestic players and rising localization [41][42]. - Biotechnology: Biotech firms are leveraging global partnerships and AI-driven discovery, showing resilience despite market volatility [46]. Consumption and Policy - Consumer Confidence: There are signs of recovering consumer confidence, which is crucial for sustained market gains. This recovery is linked to property price stabilization and policy support for consumption [7][71]. - Regulatory Environment: The call discusses ongoing regulatory pressures and anti-involution efforts aimed at curbing hyper-competition and restoring profitability across various sectors [71][79]. Potential Risks - Investor Sentiment: There is skepticism among investors regarding the effectiveness of anti-involution measures, particularly in competitive sectors like food delivery [71][72]. - Domestic Policy Uncertainty: Concerns about renewed regulatory pressures on private enterprises contribute to the China risk premium, alongside issues like housing deflation and geopolitical tensions with the U.S. [7][71]. Investment Opportunities - Under-owned Equities: Chinese equities remain under-owned by foreign investors, with potential inflows exceeding $300 billion as market conditions improve [7][8]. - Preferred Sectors: J.P. Morgan identifies leading internet platforms, materials, brokers, insurers, and thematic momentum in robotics and biotech as preferred investment spaces [15][8]. Conclusion - Long-term Outlook: The report suggests a significant reassessment of market prospects in China, moving towards long-term appreciation rather than short-term trading strategies [2][8].