基本金属-中东事件对铝价的风险-Base Metals Comment_ Risks to Aluminium Prices From Middle East Events

Summary of Aluminium Market Insights from GCC Region Industry Overview - The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran account for approximately 9% of global primary aluminium production, which translates to around 6 million tonnes, or about 20% of production outside of China [4][6][9] - The majority of this production (80-90%) is exported, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz [4] Core Insights - Current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose risks to aluminium prices due to potential disruptions in supply chains and export capabilities [4] - There have been no reports of damage to aluminium smelters in the region, but the situation remains fluid and could impact both exports and access to raw materials [4][5] - The aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is currently trading about $700 per tonne above the estimated fair value, driven by concerns over new supply meeting steady demand growth [4][9] - A temporary disruption of less than one week could add approximately $50 per tonne to the fair value price of aluminium, but a longer disruption could lead to significant price increases due to lower inventory levels and higher energy costs [4][5] Price Projections - The base case projection for LME aluminium prices is an average of $3,150 per tonne in the first half of 2026, with expectations of new supply from Indonesia increasing global visible inventories later in the year [9] - A one-month production loss from the GCC region could reduce global aluminium inventory forecasts from 51 to 48 days, potentially justifying a price of $3,600 per tonne under certain conditions [4][9] - European aluminium premiums are expected to see substantial upside, remaining below 2022 highs, with the UAE and Bahrain being significant exporters to Europe [9] Additional Considerations - The UAE imports approximately 5-6 million tonnes of seaborne bauxite annually, primarily through the Khalifa Seaport, which is currently undamaged [4] - The US absorbs 14% of GCC aluminium exports, while Asian markets are also key destinations; however, the impact on China is expected to be limited due to high inventory levels [9] - The scheduled closure of South32's Mozal smelter, which has a capacity of approximately 580,000 tonnes, could further tighten supply in the European market [9] Conclusion - The aluminium market is facing potential volatility due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with implications for supply, pricing, and inventory levels. Investors should closely monitor developments in the region and their impact on global aluminium dynamics [4][9]