全球纸浆与造纸- 全球纸浆库存：硬件出货量上升，库存下降-Global Pulp & Paper_ Global pulp inventories – HW shipments up, inventories down

Summary of Global Pulp & Paper Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global pulp and paper industry, specifically analyzing hardwood (HW) and softwood (SW) pulp dynamics and inventory levels [1][8]. Key Points Pulp Inventory and Shipments - Total pulp mill inventories increased by two days month-over-month (m-o-m) in January, reaching 43 days, which aligns with the five-year average for January [1] - Hardwood inventories rose by two days m-o-m to 39 days, which is five days below the five-year monthly average [1] - Softwood inventories increased by three days m-o-m to 50 days, exceeding the five-year monthly average by seven days [1] Hardwood Pulp Dynamics - Hardwood shipments increased by 3.5% year-over-year (y-o-y) in January, with notable increases in North America (+23.8%, +60k tons), Other Asia/Africa (+10.4%, +36k tons), Latin America (+16.1%, +35k tons), and China (+2.9%, +27k tons) [2] - The operating rate for hardwood averaged 85% in January, up 3 percentage points (ppt) y-o-y [2] - Global demand for hardwood is expected to ease in 2026 after a strong performance driven by substitution and inventory effects [2] Softwood Pulp Dynamics - Softwood shipments declined by 5.5% y-o-y in January, with decreases reported across all regions except Latin America (+3.2%, +2k tons) [3] - Significant declines were noted in North America (-11.3%, -39k tons) and Western Europe (-7.7%, -29k tons) [3] - The operating rate for softwood averaged 87% in January, down 3 ppt y-o-y [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lower shipments of hardwood pulp in January were attributed to weaker sales of bleached softwood and unbleached kraft pulp, leading to increased inventories [4] - Supply disruptions are improving hardwood pulp dynamics, with Suzano announcing price hikes for shipments to Asia and other regions [5] - Factors contributing to improved dynamics include Suzano's decision to produce approximately 3.5% below its nominal annual capacity in 2026, the revocation of a forestry concession license in Indonesia, and delays in the startup of APP's Oki project [5] - No new supply is expected to start this year, which is anticipated to result in higher pulp prices through 2026 [5] Market Data - Total shipments in January were reported at 4,562k tons, a decrease of 14.7% m-o-m [9] - The capacity utilization rate for total pulp was 86%, down 12 ppt from the previous month [9] - Specific regional data showed North America with 636k tons shipped, Western Europe with 888k tons, and China with 1,701k tons, all reflecting varying degrees of decline [9] Additional Insights - The report indicates a gradual improvement in hardwood pulp industry dynamics due to supply constraints, which may lead to increased prices in the near future [5] - The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism regarding hardwood pulp, while softwood pulp faces challenges due to declining shipments [3][5] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the global pulp and paper industry, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the sector.