2026-03-04 14:17Summary of the Conference Call on AI Optical Modules Industry Overview - The AI optical module market is projected to grow significantly, with the total addressable market expected to increase from approximately $18 billion in 2025 to about $50 billion by 2028, driven primarily by advancements in AI data center architectures [1][16]. Key Insights - Concerns regarding the disruptive impact of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) have been recognized and reflected in market valuations [8][16]. - The profitability from the ramp-up of 800G and 1.6T optical modules in 2026 is still underestimated by the market, which limits the risk of further valuation downgrades [8][16]. - The report reaffirms a preference for stocks that directly benefit from optical module demand, including companies like NewEase, LianYa, and Coherent [8][16]. - Long-term prospects for CPO development are viewed positively, with optimism for companies such as TSMC, ASE Technology, and others [8][16]. CPO Impact Analysis - The impact of CPO is acknowledged as a structural change, but its threat is more pronounced in the medium term rather than the short term. The dilution of optical module demand due to CPO is estimated to be about 3% in 2026 and 11% in 2027, primarily constrained by manufacturing yields, thermal complexity, cost premiums, ecosystem maturity, and maintenance risks [8][15]. - The likelihood of large-scale implementation of CPO before 2027-2028 is considered low, with initial applications focusing on ≥3.2T rather than the currently mainstream 800G and 1.6T [8][15]. Demand Growth Projections - Despite the potential impact of CPO, the demand for optical modules is expected to continue its exponential growth. The absolute shipment volume of 800G and 1.6T optical modules is projected to increase from approximately 20 million units in 2025 to about 80 million units by 2028 [8][16]. - Short-term deployments will be dominated by horizontal expansion, while vertical expansion scenarios will see a significant acceleration in optical interconnect penetration rates after 2027 as copper interconnects reach physical limits [8][16]. Scenarios for CPO Adoption - Optimistic Scenario: CPO adoption is delayed until after 2028, while Near-Package Optics (NPO) matures earlier. In the long term, optical modules are expected to maintain over 70% market share in high-end markets [8][16]. - Base Case Scenario: CPO begins to ramp up in 2027-2028, coexisting with optical modules during the transition to 3.2T generations [8][16]. - Pessimistic Scenario: CPO achieves technological breakthroughs earlier, compressing long-term market share but not undermining short-term profit growth logic [8][16]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for companies involved in optical modules, with specific upgrades in ratings and price targets for NewEase and Tianfu Communication [18][8]. - Additional companies highlighted for their potential include COHR, LianYa, VPEC, TSMC, ASE Technology, and others [18][8]. Conclusion - The AI optical module market is on the verge of significant growth, driven by advancements in data center architectures. While CPO presents a potential risk, its impact is expected to be limited in the short term, allowing for continued demand growth in traditional optical modules. The investment landscape remains favorable for companies directly benefiting from this trend [1][16][18].