Ecopetrol(EC) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved an EBITDA of COP 46.7 trillion, maintaining a stable EBITDA margin of 39% despite lower crude prices compared to 2024 [30][31] - Net income for the year totaled COP 9 trillion, close to the target established in the financial plan, despite a decline in Brent prices from $80 in 2024 to $68 per barrel in 2025 [34][36] - The company transferred COP 35 trillion to the nation in dividends, taxes, and royalties, reaffirming its role in national economic development [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average production reached 745,000 barrels per day, with national crude production at 517,000 barrels, the highest level in five years [5][16] - The transportation segment achieved an EBITDA of COP 11 trillion and net income close to COP 5 trillion, marking one of the highest results in its history [19] - Refining throughput reached 417,000 barrels per day, with a gross refinement margin increasing by 32% compared to 2024, from $9.9 to $31 per barrel [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved the best crude differential in four years, closing 2025 at $4.6 per barrel, an improvement of $2 compared to 2024 [6] - The company marketed 100% of the Ceres gas in advance and signed gas sales contracts for an average of 326 GBTUde for 2026, covering 76% of demand [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a clear strategic focus on traditional business while advancing in energy transition projects, including green hydrogen production [45] - The investment plan for 2026 ranges between $5.4 billion and $6.7 billion, with approximately 70% allocated to hydrocarbons and 30% to low-emission businesses [42][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of financial discipline and operational efficiency in navigating a challenging environment marked by lower crude prices and inflation [30][31] - The company expects to maintain a net income breakeven close to $47 per barrel in 2026, with a focus on optimizing financial costs and debt structure [44] Other Important Information - The company achieved a reserves replacement ratio of 121%, the highest in the last four years, driven by organic growth and operational optimization [8][9] - The efficiency program delivered historic results, accumulating more than COP 16 trillion over the past three years [5] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Can you provide more details on the sequential fall of production and the total production of Permian and Delaware? - The company indicated that production levels depend on activity and prices, estimating to drill 38-40 wells in 2026 [50][52] Question: Is the dividend subject to the collection of fiscal and ISAPEC? - The dividend distribution is subject to the authority of the shareholders meeting, with a recommendation of COP 110 per share [54] Question: Can you provide guidance on the equity tax and liquidity for dividend payments? - The estimated equity tax payment is between COP 1 billion and COP 1.3 billion, with a strong cash position of COP 12.7 trillion supporting liquidity [63] Question: What changes were made in the agreements with the National Agency of Hydrocarbons? - There were no changes in contracts; however, a decision was made to change the royalty payment method from in-kind to cash, which has been validated by the SEC [65][66] Question: What is the expected breakeven profit for 2026? - The breakeven is expected to be closer to $46 per barrel, with a tax component of $9-$10 per barrel [70]