中国股票策略：2026 年全国两会-对指数层面影响有限；主题投资得到强化-China Equity Strategy-2026 NPC - Limited Impact At Index Level; Themes Reinforced

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the China Equity Strategy and the implications of the 2026 National People's Congress (NPC) government work report on the equity market in China [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The NPC government work report indicates a GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, slightly lower than the ~5% indicated at the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in December 2025 [2]. - The augmented fiscal budget deficit is set at 10.4% of GDP, which is flat and does not suggest a significant macroeconomic growth pickup or reflation expectations [2]. - The annual MSCI China earnings growth forecast remains at 6%, with notable divergence among sectors and industries [2]. Sector Focus and Priorities - There is a pronounced focus on hardcore tech and innovation sectors, including IC/chip/semiconductors, aerospace, biotech/pharma, and the low-altitude economy [3]. - Future industries highlighted for growth include quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain-machine interfaces, and 6G technology [3]. - The report aligns with preferred sectors in the China sector allocation framework, which includes high-end industrials, AI and semiconductors, biopharma, as well as materials, insurance, and diversified financials [3]. Policy Shifts - The emphasis on anti-involution continues, indicating a shift in policy priorities, while references to the property market have weakened [4]. - The urgency to stabilize the housing market has been toned down, with no explicit preference to "stop the price fall" [4]. - The report suggests a lower primary inventory level of housing is necessary before signs of stabilization can be expected, projecting at least another year for this to be achieved [4]. Market Preferences - The preference for the A-share market over offshore markets is reinforced due to policy support for A-share concentrated sectors and stocks [5]. - There was a record-high single-day net selling through Southbound at US $2.8 billion on March 5, 2026, indicating weaker momentum in Southbound flows [5]. - Potential support from the National Team for A-shares is anticipated if market volatility increases [5]. Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of customized plans at the sector/industry level to improve earnings and margins in the long run [4]. - The divergence in sector performance is highlighted, suggesting that while some sectors may thrive, others may lag behind [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the economic outlook, sector priorities, policy shifts, and market preferences in the context of China's equity strategy.