投资者：全国两会及 “十五五” 规划后的市场展望-Investor Presentation-Outlook Post NPC and FYP

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: The conference call primarily discusses the economic outlook for China, particularly in relation to the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Five-Year Plan (FYP) [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - GDP Target: The NPC has set a GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% for 2026, maintaining a flat fiscal package, indicating a pragmatic approach to economic management [4][5]. - Fiscal Deficit: The augmented fiscal deficit is projected at RMB 15,209 billion (10.4% of GDP) for 2026, with a budget deficit of RMB 5,890 billion (4.0% of GDP) [4][5]. - Supply-Centric Policy: The overall policy remains focused on supply-side measures, with a gradual pace of economic rebalancing [5][6]. - Oil Price Management: China is expected to manage the impact of transitory oil price hikes effectively due to its relatively small trade deficit and modest pass-through to consumer price index (CPI) [9][12]. - AI and Capex Growth: The top six companies in AI are forecasted to increase capital expenditures (capex) by 11% year-on-year to RMB 445 billion in 2026, with a self-sufficiency ratio for GPUs expected to reach 50% by 2027 [27][30]. Additional Important Insights - Industrial Upgrade: China is positioned as a key player in the global robotics market, accounting for approximately 40% of the market in 2024, with expectations for growth in drones and service robots [42][46]. - Biotech Innovation: By 2040, it is anticipated that China-originated assets will constitute 35% of US FDA approvals, driven by the lifecycle of loss of exclusivity (LOE) [52][55]. - Social Welfare Reforms: There is a need for significant reforms in social welfare to address high household savings and improve consumption rates, with a roadmap proposed to gradually unwind excess savings [108][110]. - Housing Market Dynamics: The housing market is undergoing deleveraging, with a need for approximately RMB 3 trillion in funding to address inventory issues in tier 1 and tier 2 cities [102][103]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a cautious yet strategic approach to economic management in China, focusing on supply-side reforms, technological advancements, and social welfare improvements to stimulate growth and address structural challenges in the economy.