亚太能源 - 中东供应中断下具吸引力的风险回报-APAC Energy_ Attractive risk-reward amid Middle East supply disruptions

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The ongoing supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global oil supply, with approximately 20% of it impacted, leading to a shift in the 2026 oil outlook from oversupply to inventory drawdowns [1][6] - The medium-term outlook for oil prices is constructive, with a long-term Brent price forecast of US$75/bbl from 2028 onwards [1] Company-Specific Insights APAC Upstream Companies - Buy-rated APAC upstream companies (PTTEP, CNOOC, PetroChina, and STO) are currently pricing in an average Brent oil price of approximately US$65/bbl, which is considered low compared to developed market (DM) peers [1][12][14] - Valuations of these companies remain discounted relative to DM peers, presenting potential for catch-up [1][14] Price Target Adjustments - Target prices (TPs) for PTTEP have been raised to Bt165 from Bt155, reflecting higher oil prices and a valuation base year adjustment to a blended 2027/28 [2][26] - CNOOC's TP is set at HK$31.0, based on a 50%/50% blend of DCF and EV/DACF valuation [31] - PetroChina's TP is HK$11.50/Rmb15.30, with expectations of robust cash flow covering capex and dividends at less than US$50/bbl Brent [37] Financial Performance and Projections - PTTEP's EBITDA for 2026E is revised up by 6.1% due to higher Dubai price forecasts [26] - CNOOC is expected to see production growth of around 5% and a leading cash flow position, benefiting from elevated oil prices [31] - PetroChina's cash flow is projected to yield 10% in 2027E, with a dividend yield of 5% [37] Market Dynamics - The commodity team at Goldman Sachs sees upside risks to oil prices due to longer disruption scenarios, with potential prices temporarily exceeding US$100/bbl during high uncertainty periods [6][11] - Elevated JKM prices are expected to create favorable conditions for PetroChina to achieve higher domestic gas prices, with each 1% change in realized gas price impacting EBITDA by approximately 1% [7][23] Risk Assessment - ONGC is rated as a Sell due to elevated valuations compared to historical averages, despite a TP increase to Rs240 from Rs220 [2][46] - The market's perception of risk around the length of disruption could influence demand destruction urgency, potentially leading to higher prices [22] Conclusion - The APAC upstream oil sector presents an attractive risk-reward profile amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions, with several companies positioned to benefit from rising oil prices and favorable market conditions [1][6][12]