全球科技硬件 我们预计 2026 年手机出货量同比下降 17%-Global Tech Hardware We see 2026 shipments declining 17 YoY

Summary of Global Tech Hardware Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the global smartphone industry, highlighting shipment forecasts and market dynamics for the upcoming years. Key Points Shipment Forecasts - Global smartphone shipments are revised down to 1.04 billion units for 2026, reflecting a 17% YoY decline, and projected to increase to 1.17 billion in 2027 (+12% YoY) and 1.25 billion in 2028 (+7% YoY) [1][2] - The decline in shipments is attributed to demand weakness due to memory price hikes and rising inflation, with average selling prices (ASP) expected to increase by 7% in 2026, 2% in 2027, and 3% in 2028 [1][2] Regional Impact - Significant declines in smartphone shipments are expected across various regions in 2026: - China: -12% - Japan: -11% - North America: -10% - Western Europe: -16% - CEMA: -18% - India: -30% - Latin America: -21% [2] Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are anticipated to be more affected due to a higher mix of lower-end models [2] - Apple and Samsung are expected to remain resilient in shipments, while Xiaomi is forecasted to decline by 13% YoY to 144 million units [2] Recent Shipment Performance - In 4Q25, smartphone shipments rose by 2.5% YoY to 336.9 million, exceeding expectations by 5% [3] - The highest growth was recorded in CEMA (+7.2%), North America (+6.2%), and Latin America (+5.8%) [3] - In China, the ASP increased by 9% to US$558, with models priced above US$200 making up 80% of shipments [3] Vendor Performance - Top vendors in 4Q25: - Samsung: Shipments increased by 18% YoY to 61.2 million - Apple: Shipments increased by 9% YoY to 84.6 million - Xiaomi: Shipments decreased by 11% YoY to 37.8 million [3] Foldable Smartphone Market - 2025 foldable smartphone shipments were reported at 20.3 million, up 9% YoY, with Huawei leading at 7.2 million units [8] - Forecasts for foldable smartphone shipments are 29 million in 2026 and 45 million in 2027, driven by iPhone foldable models [8] Component Supplier Preferences - Preferred suppliers include: - Memory: SK Hynix, Sandisk, Kioxia, Samsung - iPhone Foldable: Lens Tech, Luxshare, Amphenol, ZDT, DSBJ, TDK - Camera Upgrades: LG Innotek, Cowell [9] Risks and Challenges - Qualcomm and Mediatek experienced market share losses in 4Q25, with Qualcomm's share dropping by 0.1ppt YoY and Mediatek by 2.4ppt YoY [7] - The smartphone industry faces challenges from rising costs and inventory issues, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments [9] Conclusion - The global smartphone market is facing a downturn in shipments due to economic pressures, but certain players like Apple and Samsung are expected to maintain their positions. The foldable smartphone segment shows promise for growth, and selective investment in key suppliers is recommended.