2026-03-16 02:26Summary of the China PCB Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - Sector: China PCB (Printed Circuit Board) Sector - Key Focus: Developments in LPU (Large Processing Unit) and Kyber midplane designs, CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) pricing dynamics, and substrate market trends Key Points PCB Design Developments - Upcoming GTC will highlight updates on LPU and Kyber midplane designs - Two potential PCB solutions for LPU identified: 1. Adopting a design similar to HGX with LPU accelerator cards on a universal baseboard (UBB) 2. Connecting LPU and CPU via a midplane, akin to CPX design - Kyber midplane developments include third round of Blackwell-based 78L MLB sampling, with Rubin Ultra-based solutions potentially exceeding 100 layers - Final design decisions and supplier allocations expected by mid-year, with mass production anticipated in Q4 2026 to H1 2027 - M9+Q glass identified as the most feasible CCL solution for both LPU and Kyber midplane [1][10] CCL Pricing Dynamics - A cost inflation-driven CCL pricing cycle has commenced, with glass fabric being the tightest raw material - High-end low-dk/CTE fabric and commodity E-glass prices have increased by 18% in the first two months of 2026 - Processing fees for copper foil have risen over 15% year-to-date, while resin supply remains relaxed but volatile - Conventional FR4 suppliers have issued price increases of 10-20% to PCB customers, with further adjustments likely - AI-related high-speed CCL pricing remains stable as suppliers prioritize share allocation over cost transfer [2][9] Substrate Market Trends - A-share BT substrate makers have been conservative on pricing, lagging behind regional peers - Expectation for A-share players to catch up on price lifts in Q1 2026, with gross margin upside anticipated from Q2 2026 - Order visibility remains strong into mid-2026 due to sustained memory cycle - ABF demand is improving, but Chinese suppliers have not yet begun mass production for overseas customers [3][18] Company Preferences and Sentiment - Preferred companies include Shengyi Tech (SYT) and Shennan Circuits, which have substrate exposure or existing AI exposure at key customers - Improved sentiment noted for FastPrint, although it is positioned further downstream in the AI supply chain [4] Financial Performance and Forecasts - SYT's Q4 2025 net profit expected between Rmb807-1,007 million, up 120-175% YoY - KBL anticipates 2025 net profit exceeding HK$2.39 billion, up over 80% YoY - CCL entering an upcycle driven by raw material costs and supply tightness, with conventional CCL leading price increases [9][18] Capacity and Investment Trends - Concerns about oversupply in the AI PCB supply chain due to aggressive capacity additions, particularly among PCB suppliers - CAPEX discipline noted among high-end CCL and upstream materials vendors - Projected growth of 66% in China PCB output value and 70% in CCL output value by the end of 2028 from 2025 levels [23][24] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks of high-end PCB oversupply in the next two years are mitigated by: 1. Increased complexity in designs leading to lower production yields 2. Not all announced PCB projects translating to real supply due to qualification challenges [24][26] Conclusion - The China PCB sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for AI-related applications, despite challenges in pricing and capacity management. Key players are expected to benefit from strategic positioning and market dynamics in the coming years [1][2][3][4][9][18][23][24].