全球基金经理调查-现金持有激增，股票资产未现恐慌抛售-Global Fund Manager Survey-Cash surge but no equity capitulation

Summary of BofA Global Fund Manager Survey - March 2026 Industry Overview - The survey reflects the sentiment of global fund managers regarding macroeconomic conditions, asset allocation, and investment strategies in March 2026. Key Points Macro Economic Sentiment - Global growth optimism has significantly decreased, with only 7% of investors expecting a stronger economy, down from 39% in February 2026 [doc id='2'][doc id='13'] - Inflation expectations have surged, with 45% of investors anticipating higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9% last month [doc id='23'][doc id='104'] - The probability of a hard landing for the economy is perceived to be low at 5%, while 46% expect "no landing" and 44% anticipate a "soft landing" [doc id='20'][doc id='18'] Risk Factors - Geopolitical tensions and inflation have replaced the AI bubble as the primary tail risks, with 63% of investors identifying private equity/credit as the most likely source of a systemic credit event [doc id='3'][doc id='38'] - Concerns over credit default risk have risen sharply, with 46% of investors indicating above-normal risk, the highest since April 2025 [doc id='49'] Asset Allocation Trends - Cash levels among fund managers have increased to 4.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2020 [doc id='16'][doc id='14] - There has been a rotation in asset allocation from "boom" sectors like banks to "stagflation" sectors such as staples [doc id='4'] - Fund managers are currently net 34% overweight in commodities, the highest since April 2022, and net 53% overweight in emerging market equities, the highest since February 2021 [doc id='68'][doc id='160] Investment Strategies - The most crowded trades identified are "long gold" and "long global semiconductors," each at 35% [doc id='61'] - Contrarian trades suggested include long bonds and short commodities, as well as long UK and short emerging markets [doc id='5'] - Fund managers are underweight in consumer discretionary stocks, with a net 27% underweight, the lowest since December 2022 [doc id='72] Political Outlook - Investors expect the outcome of the 2026 US midterm elections to result in a Democratic House and Republican Senate, with 54% supporting this view [doc id='58] Sector Sentiment - Fund managers are most overweight in pharmaceuticals, banks, and industrials, while being underweight in consumer discretionary and insurance sectors [doc id='169'] - The sentiment towards technology remains positive, with a net 7% overweight [doc id='175] Currency Valuation - 46% of fund managers believe the US dollar is overvalued, down from 52% last month [doc id='145] Additional Insights - The survey indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards a more cautious approach, with increased cash holdings and a focus on commodities and emerging markets as potential areas for growth [doc id='4'][doc id='68] - The overall sentiment index has dropped to a six-month low, reflecting growing concerns about economic stability and inflation [doc id='9']