大宗商品：铝供应扰动持续累积-Commodity Matters-Aluminium Disruptions Adding Up

Summary of Aluminium Market Disruptions Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminium industry, particularly disruptions in the Middle East, affecting major producers like Alba (Aluminium Bahrain) and Qatalum [1][3]. Key Points Production Shutdowns - Alba has initiated a shutdown of three potlines, accounting for 19% of its production, approximately 308,000 tonnes (kt), due to a force majeure declaration on shipments [3][4]. - Qatalum is also experiencing a shutdown of 40% of its production, which is around 260 kt [3][4]. - Additionally, the Mozal smelter in Mozambique, with a capacity of 500 kt per annum (ktpa), is closing this month [3][10]. Market Implications - These shutdowns contribute to an already tight aluminium market, with potential supply losses expected to persist throughout 2026 due to the lengthy restart process (6-12 months) once operations resume [4][10]. - The Middle East region produces 9% of global aluminium but is heavily reliant on imports for raw materials, producing only 3% of alumina and 1.3% of bauxite [5][11]. Raw Material Concerns - The region's reliance on imports is highlighted, with approximately 2 tonnes of bauxite required for every tonne of alumina, and 2 tonnes of alumina needed for each tonne of aluminium [5][11]. - Alba and Qatalum are focusing on controlled shutdowns to minimize potline damage and facilitate future restarts [4][10]. Price Trends - Regional aluminium prices have increased more than the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark, with premiums rising significantly [6][12]. - The proposed aluminium premium for Japan in Q2 is $155 per tonne higher than in Q1, indicating strong demand and tight supply conditions [6][12]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on aluminium prices, projecting a bull case of $3,700 per tonne for FY 2026, driven by ongoing supply disruptions and rising regional premiums [10][12]. - The aluminium forward curve has entered steep backwardation, indicating market tightness, with LME on-warrant inventories at their lowest since May 2025 [12]. Additional Insights - Concerns about raw material availability are expected to grow if shipping disruptions continue, which could lead to pre-emptive actions by smelters to avoid running out of supplies [5][10]. - Alba has reported low stocks of raw materials, while Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has a buffer of only two to three weeks [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and implications for the aluminium industry, particularly in light of recent production disruptions in the Middle East.