FOMC维持联邦基金利率不变；2026-2027 年点阵图中位数均维持降息一次预期；经济预测摘要显示潜在 GDP 上调- Leaves Fed Funds Rate Unchanged; Median Dot Unchanged at One Cut Each in 2026 and 2027; SEP Shows Higher Potential GDP

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its decisions regarding the federal funds rate, which is a critical aspect of U.S. monetary policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. Fed Funds Rate Decision: - The FOMC decided to keep the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% during its March meeting. Only Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented, advocating for a 25 basis point cut instead [2][1]. 2. Economic Projections: - The median forecast in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, which remains unchanged from the previous December forecast. Seven participants expect no cuts in 2026 [2][1]. - The longer-run fed funds rate forecast slightly increased from 3.0% to 3.125% [2][1]. 3. Inflation Forecasts: - The median SEP forecast shows an increase in headline PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7% in 2026 and by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% in 2027. Core PCE inflation is also projected to rise by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in 2026 and by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% in 2027 [3][1]. 4. GDP Growth Projections: - Real GDP growth forecasts have been upgraded across the board, with a small increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% for Q4/Q4 growth in 2026. Larger upgrades include 0.3 percentage points to 2.3% in 2027 and 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% in 2028. The longer-run real GDP growth forecast increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.0% [3][1]. 5. Unemployment Rate Forecast: - The median unemployment rate forecast remains unchanged at 4.4% for 2026, with a slight increase to 4.3% in 2027. The forecast for 2028 and the longer run remains at 4.2% [3][1]. Additional Important Information - The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy were noted as uncertain in the post-meeting statement [2][1]. - The document includes contact information for various analysts at Goldman Sachs, indicating the involvement of multiple professionals in the analysis and reporting of the FOMC meeting outcomes [4][1]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC meeting and its implications for the U.S. economy, focusing on monetary policy, inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment forecasts.