中国股票策略-全球波动性加剧，A 股市场情绪回落-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Declined Amid Heightened Global Volatility

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-share Market in China - Current Sentiment: A-share sentiment has declined amid heightened global volatility, with a notable decrease in trading volume [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Sentiment Indicators: The weighted MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) decreased by 4 percentage points to 46% as of March 18, 2026, while the 1-month moving average (MMA) also fell by 3 percentage points to 54% [2] - Trading Volume: Average daily turnover for ChiNext decreased by 9% to RMB 570 billion, and A-shares decreased by 6% to RMB 2,286 billion [2] - Net Inflows: Southbound trading saw a net inflow of USD 2.3 billion during March 12-18, with year-to-date net inflows reaching USD 21.6 billion [3] - Macro Activity: January-February macroeconomic indicators showed strong performance, with industrial production at 6.3% (consensus 5.3%), fixed asset investment at 1.8% (consensus -5.1%), and retail sales at 2.8% YoY (consensus 2.5%) [4] - GDP Forecast: The China Macro team maintains a 1Q real GDP tracking at 4.9% YoY, expecting a slowdown from Q2 onward due to waning infrastructure push and continued weakness in consumption and housing [4] Additional Important Insights - Geopolitical Risks: The escalation of the Iran conflict has increased global volatility and oil prices, emphasizing the importance of energy security in China [12] - Investment Strategy: A preference for A-shares over offshore listings is recommended, focusing on sectors with strong real asset and technology innovation [13] - Market Dynamics: Recent geopolitical developments have complicated US-China relations, which may lead to muted market reactions compared to previous years [13] - MSASI Methodology: The MSASI is constructed using 12 individual indicators to capture various dimensions of investor sentiment, with a normalization process to ensure comparability [14][24] Data and Metrics - Trading Metrics: The report includes various metrics such as ChiNext turnover, A-share turnover, equity futures turnover, and margin financing outstanding, all normalized for better analysis [17][18][19] - Earnings Estimate Revisions: The breadth of earnings estimate revisions remains negative, indicating a cautious outlook among analysts [2][55] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share market, macroeconomic indicators, and strategic investment insights.