铜板（CCL） 印刷电路板（PCB）-交期延长预示 CCLPCB 基板价格前景更乐观，盈利预期改善；给予买入评级-Taiwan CCL_PCB_ Much more favorable CCL_PCB_Substrate pricing outlook with lengthening lead times suggesting better earnings outlook; Buy on

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: CCL (Copper Clad Laminate), PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate - Key Trends: Favorable pricing outlook, lengthening lead times, and increased demand driven by AI adoption Core Insights 1. Pricing Outlook: - CCL pricing is expected to increase by 30% for low-end and 15% for high-end products QoQ in April, driven by supply-demand imbalances [3] - PCB pricing is projected to rise by approximately 10% across all sectors in 1H26, which will offset higher CCL costs [9] 2. Lead Times: - Current lead times for low-end CCL products are over 20 weeks, while high-end products vary from 4 to 12 weeks depending on project types [3] - Substrate CCL market entry is anticipated for Taiwan high-speed CCL suppliers starting in 2H26 due to T-glass supply constraints [4] 3. Market Share and Product Development: - ZDT is expected to capture over 10% market share with the new Rubin computing tray and is set to supply Google TPU 8 starting from 2H26 [1] - EMC is projected to regain market share in the NVDA supply chain, enhancing its overall CCL ASP [8] 4. Earnings Outlook: - Long-term earnings outlook for EMC, TUC, GCE, and ZDT is positive due to better pricing and demand dynamics [1][2] - ZDT's ABF substrate capacity is expected to be fully utilized in 2H26, driven by new AI projects [12] Financial Revisions 1. EMC: - 12-month target price revised from NT$3,200 to NT$3,500, reflecting a more favorable P/E multiple and improved earnings outlook [27] - EPS estimates for 2026/27/28 revised up by 1/2/2% [17] 2. TUC: - 12-month target price increased from NT$900 to NT$1,015, aligning with a more positive P/E multiple [29] - EPS estimates for 2026/27/28 revised up by 2/3/2% [19] 3. GCE: - 12-month target price raised from NT$1,060 to NT$1,210, maintaining a target P/E multiple of 22x [31] - EPS estimates for 2026/27/28 revised up by 1/2/2% [22] 4. ZDT: - EPS estimate for 2026 revised down by 5% due to stronger-than-expected CCL pricing, but 2027/28 estimates revised up by 4/5% due to proactive capacity expansion [23] Additional Insights - The demand for AI-related CCL and PCB is expected to continue rising, with significant implications for second-tier suppliers like ZDT [10][11] - The overall CCL and PCB suppliers, especially high-end ones, are anticipated to experience solid growth in earnings due to favorable pricing and demand dynamics [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the positive outlook for the CCL, PCB, and ABF substrate industries, along with specific financial revisions for the companies involved.