外汇聚焦_人民币_韧性- 经得住考验-Asian FX Focus_ RMB_ Resilience – tried and tested

Summary of the Conference Call on RMB Currencies Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and its performance against the US dollar (USD) and other currencies in the Asian region [2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. RMB's Resilience: The RMB has shown strong resilience against the USD, outperforming other Asian currencies and most non-USD G10 currencies, indicating its rising status as a global reserve currency [2][10]. 2. USD-CNY Fixings: Despite the USD's broad appreciation, the USD-CNY fixings have remained on a modest downtrend, falling from 6.9228 on February 27 to 6.9012 on March 16, with a low of 6.8917 on March 11 [3][18]. 3. Market Sentiment: As of March 5, the market was notably bullish on the RMB, with onshore flows skewed towards USD selling, indicating a strong sentiment towards RMB strength [5][10]. 4. Trade Balance Impact: The trade balance is manageable, with an oil and gas trade deficit of about 2% of GDP. A 10% rise in oil prices is expected to narrow the monthly trade surplus by approximately USD 3 billion [6]. 5. Policy Support for RMB Strength: The Chinese authorities are focused on domestic agendas that support RMB strengthening, including promoting its cross-border use and maintaining stable exchange rates [5][15][17]. 6. Cross-Border RMB Transactions: The RMB's share in cross-border transactions has increased significantly, reaching 51% in 2024 and 52% in 2025, up from around 40% in 2021 [15][37]. 7. FX Conversion Ratios: The implied net FX conversion ratio for corporates has increased to 66% from 62%, indicating a steady trend in FX conversion practices [12][27]. 8. Foreign Exchange Policy: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate while expanding the use of RMB in international trade and investment [15][17]. 9. RMB Internationalization: The fifteenth Five-Year Plan emphasizes RMB internationalization, including developing an independent cross-border payment system and enhancing Hong Kong's role as a global offshore RMB hub [16]. Additional Important Insights - Onshore Market Dynamics: The onshore market showed net sales of USD 55 billion in February, a decrease from USD 89 billion in January, attributed to fewer working days [11][25]. - Equity Outflows: There has been an increase in RMB-denominated outflows, particularly through the Southbound Stock Connect, indicating a shift in investment patterns [13][31]. - PBoC's FX Assets: The PBoC's FX assets increased by USD 12 billion in February, reflecting a measured approach to managing RMB appreciation [14][33]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the RMB's performance and the broader implications for the currency's status in the global market.