科技-FC-BGA：从 GPU 周期到系统级 AI 升级-S. Korea Technology-FC-BGA From GPU Cycle to System-Level AI Upcycle

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: South Korea Technology, specifically focusing on advanced semiconductor packaging technology, particularly FC-BGA (Fan-Out Chip-on-Board Ball Grid Array) [2][10] - Market Dynamics: The demand for FC-BGA is transitioning from GPU-led growth to a broader AI system-driven cycle, with CPUs and networking components driving incremental demand [2][3][10] Key Insights 1. Shift in Demand Composition: - FC-BGA demand is increasingly tied to system complexity and chip count expansion, moving beyond just GPU scaling to include CPUs, DPUs, NICs, and other high-performance logic chips [3][10] - The architecture of AI platforms is evolving towards a rack-level integration of multiple chip types, increasing the overall demand for advanced substrates [3][10] 2. Role of CPUs: - CPUs are becoming critical in the AI era, responsible for scheduling and execution control, which could lead to a significant increase in CPU core requirements per data center power unit [4][10] - The introduction of standalone CPU racks indicates a shift in CPUs from a supporting role to a separate compute layer, further driving FC-BGA demand [4][10] 3. Networking and Disaggregation: - AI infrastructure is becoming more disaggregated, increasing reliance on networking silicon and interconnect solutions, which drives additional FC-BGA demand in various components [5][10] 4. Korean Supply Chain Dynamics: - The supply side is constrained by T-glass shortages and high qualification barriers, while demand is structurally expanding due to AI hardware segmentation and CPU growth [6][10] - Key players in the Korean supply chain include SEMCO, Daeduck Electronics, Korea Circuit, and LG Innotek, with potential ASP increases similar to previous memory cycles [6][10] 5. Future Market Outlook: - The ABF substrate market is projected to enter undersupply from 2027 onwards, necessitating further capacity expansions to meet future demand growth [10][21] - The interaction between AI-driven mix upgrades and supply expansion will be crucial in determining the cycle trajectory [24][10] Company-Specific Observations 1. SEMCO: - Positioned well for the AI-driven mix upgrade, with exposure to high-end substrates and alignment with leading customers [18][22] - Benefiting from the shift towards higher-value substrates, supporting margin improvement over time [22][10] 2. Daeduck Electronics: - Indicated gradual recovery with expanding end-market exposure, reflecting evolving FC-BGA demand [23][10] Important Metrics - Revenue Mix: - Memory ~50%, non-memory ~35%, MLB ~15% [27][10] - Utilization Rates: - Memory ~90%, FC-BGA ~65% and recovering [27][10] - Capex: Potential resumption of delayed investments and additional expansion under consideration [27][10] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: - Price hikes driven by MLCC shortages, better-than-expected smartphone demand, and strong tailwinds from consumption-friendly policies in China [31][10] - Downside Risks: - Significant pullback in Samsung's mobile flagship product cycle and execution risks in penetrating Chinese smartphone customers [31][10] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the evolving dynamics within the South Korean technology sector, particularly in semiconductor packaging and the implications for major players in the industry.