半导体-2026 年中国半导体展（SEMICON China）核心收获-Greater China Technology Semiconductors-SEMICON China 2026 Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways from SEMICON China 2026 Conference Industry Overview - The conference highlighted that China's semiconductor capacity expansion and domestic equipment substitution are progressing as planned [1][7]. Memory Sector Insights - YMTC and CXMT are continuing multi-year capacity build-outs, supported by structured equipment import cycles and accelerating technology migration, which is creating sustained demand for domestic wafer fab equipment (WFE) vendors [2][10]. - YMTC is on track to complete its Fab 2 production ramp in 2026, adding 20k wafers per month (wpm) of new capacity, with equipment move-in for Fab 3 scheduled for the second half of 2026 [11]. - CXMT is experiencing stronger order momentum in 2026, focusing its capacity expansion primarily on DDR5 technology, which significantly increases the value of front-end thin film deposition equipment [11][10]. - Forecasts indicate that YMTC will add 25k wpm and CXMT will add 60k wpm of new capacity in 2026 [12]. Advanced Logic Process Developments - Capacity expansion in the advanced logic process space remains robust, with multiple fabs beyond SMIC South adding capacity for leading-edge nodes [3]. - Domestic equipment penetration in leading-edge nodes is expected to reach approximately 15% in 2026, primarily driven by thin film deposition tools [16]. Domestic Equipment Vendor Innovations - Domestic semiconductor equipment vendors showcased significant product breakthroughs at the conference, including new etch systems and mass production achievements in thin film deposition tools [4][21]. - AMEC launched several new products, including a high-selectivity etch system for 3D memory devices and an ICP etch tool currently undergoing customer certification [4][24]. - ACMR introduced its "Eight-Planet" product roadmap, indicating a shift from a single-product focus to a more diversified semiconductor equipment platform [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Naura, AMEC, and ACMR, reflecting a positive outlook on their positioning within China's semiconductor localization cycle [5]. Foundry and Advanced Packaging Trends - Leading foundries, including SMIC and XMC, are vertically integrating into the advanced packaging value chain, establishing dedicated research institutes and 3D integration business units [29]. - Expected dedicated advanced packaging capacity from these foundries is anticipated to come online within the next 1-2 years, potentially reshaping competitive dynamics for domestic OSATs [30]. Economic Context - The growth in China's semiconductor equipment imports has declined to -15% year-over-year as of February 2026, indicating potential challenges in the market [20]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry in China is poised for significant growth driven by memory capacity expansion, domestic equipment innovation, and advancements in foundry capabilities, despite facing some economic headwinds.