中国房地产-境内营销反馈：探索乐观情景的时机已到-China Real Estate_ Onshore marketing feedback_ Time to explore a blue-sky scenario_

Summary of Conference Call on China Real Estate Equities Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Real Estate sector, particularly the recovery trends in both mainland China and Hong Kong markets. Key Points 1. Investor Sentiment: - Shanghai-based investors are increasingly optimistic about the China property sector, contrasting with previous sentiments in 2025. This optimism is reflected in rising southbound holdings and increased secondary transaction volumes, indicating that homeowners are less desperate to sell and buyers are returning to the market [1][7]. 2. Market Dynamics: - The recovery in Shanghai's secondary sales occurred before recent policy announcements, suggesting a potential new equilibrium in home prices. This scenario implies that further stimulus may not be necessary, although market dynamics vary across different city tiers. The year 2026 is highlighted as a critical inflection point for the housing market [2]. 3. Comparison with Hong Kong: - There is a discussion on whether mainland China's property market will follow Hong Kong's recovery. While the underlying drivers differ, both markets share similarities due to a limited number of large, liquid, and fundamentally sound developers. CR Land is identified as a bellwether for mainland China, while SHKP serves as a proxy for Hong Kong [3]. 4. Focus on CR Land (CRL): - CRL is noted for its quality investment property portfolio and strong brand equity in development. Its significant residential exposure in Shanghai (approximately 12% of saleable resources) is expected to benefit from current market momentum. The valuation of CRL is considered undemanding, with a target price of HKD 39.00, implying a 35.6% upside from the current price of HKD 28.76 [4][34]. 5. Other Notable Companies: - C&D International and Seazen are also mentioned as potential investment opportunities, with C&D rated as a laggard play and Seazen noted for its upcoming C-REIT spin-off. Both companies are rated as Buy [4]. 6. Valuation Metrics: - The report includes valuation metrics for various property developers, indicating target prices and expected upside. For instance, C&D International has a target price of HKD 20.10, suggesting a 55.6% upside from its current price of HKD 12.92 [34]. Additional Insights - Secondary Market Trends: - The daily average of secondary units sold has exceeded levels seen post-September 2024 stimulus, indicating a recovery in market activity [9]. - The average secondary listings have declined by 8% compared to the end of 2025, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market [10]. - Price Trends: - Primary average selling prices (ASP) in tier-1 cities showed a month-on-month decline turnaround in February, indicating potential stabilization in pricing trends [12]. - Risks: - Key risks to the outlook include the inability to maintain sales momentum, lower-than-expected margins, and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and property-specific policies [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China real estate market, focusing on investor sentiment, market dynamics, and specific company valuations.