铝价_供应中断推高价格预测-Base Metals Comment_ Higher Aluminium Price Forecast on Supply Disruption

Summary of Aluminium Market Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminium market, specifically addressing supply disruptions affecting production and pricing forecasts for aluminium in 2026 and beyond [4][10]. Key Points Price Forecast Adjustments - The Q2 2026 LME aluminium price forecast has been raised to $3,450 from $3,200 due to recent supply disruptions [4][17]. - The average price forecast for 2026 is now $3,200, up from $3,100 previously [17]. Supply Disruptions - Significant damage was reported at Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah site (1.6 million tonnes per annum capacity) due to missile and drone strikes [4]. - Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is assessing damage to its facility, which also has a capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per annum [4]. - Combined, these sites account for approximately 4% of global primary aluminium supply [4]. Production Adjustments - A total of 1.1 million tonnes of primary production has been removed from the 2026 balance, representing about 1.5% of global supply [4]. - The forecast for UAE aluminium production in 2026 is now 1.95 million tonnes, down from 2.7 million tonnes [4]. - Bahrain's production forecast has been adjusted to 1.1 million tonnes, down from 1.5 million tonnes [4]. Market Balance - The global aluminium market is expected to be in a 570,000 tonnes deficit in 2026, compared to a previous forecast of a 550,000 tonnes surplus [4]. - A 1.2 million tonnes deficit is anticipated in Q2 2026, with a shift to a small surplus of 190,000 tonnes by Q4 2026 as new supply from Indonesia comes online [4]. Risks and Scenarios - Risks to the new price forecast are skewed to the upside if damage from strikes is more severe than anticipated or if further supply disruptions occur [4]. - A scenario with a 50% reduction in combined production from Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Iran could see prices averaging $3,400 in 2026, significantly higher than the $700 increase during the 2022 energy crisis [4]. Future Price Forecasts - The average price forecast for 2027 has been slightly increased to $2,750 from $2,700 due to ongoing supply disruptions [5]. - A substantial surplus of 1.3 million tonnes is expected in 2027, with a Q4 2027 price forecast of $2,600 [5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the impact of geopolitical events on the aluminium market and the potential for further disruptions affecting supply and pricing [4]. - The analysis includes detailed projections for primary production and consumption, highlighting the expected growth in demand from sectors such as grid and power infrastructure and electric vehicles [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the aluminium market, reflecting the current dynamics and anticipated changes due to supply disruptions and geopolitical factors.