中国房地产_3 月销售额降幅收窄，二级市场释放积极信号-China Property March Sales Beat Narrowed Drop Positive Signal in Secondary Market

Summary of China Property Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property sector, specifically discussing sales performance and market dynamics in March 2026. Key Points Sales Performance - March Sales: Reported a 19% year-over-year (YoY) decline, but a 126% month-over-month (MoM) increase, indicating a recovery from a low base in March 2025 [1][8] - Top Performers: - COLI: RMB 28.6 billion (including RMB 23.9 billion from Shenzhen One Bay Park, a joint venture with CRL) - Poly-A: RMB 26 billion - CRL: RMB 22 billion [1] - Growth Leaders: - Sunac: +47% YoY (low base) - COLI: +35% YoY - Jinmao: +32% YoY [1] - Decliners: - Longfor: -57% YoY - Yuexiu: -44% YoY - Vanke: -43% YoY [1] - 1Q26 Performance: Overall sales down 26% YoY, with Jinmao (+23% YoY) and COLI (+11% YoY) being the only companies showing growth [1] Market Dynamics - Primary Market: New home sales down 15% YoY in March, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a 23% decline due to limited supply [3] - Secondary Market: - Volume increased to 31.6k units in the week ending March 22, the highest since May 2025, driven by Tier-1 cities [4] - Units under 70 sqm accounted for 40% of secondary volume in Shanghai and Beijing [4] Policy and Sentiment - Local Easing Measures: - Shanghai eased purchase restrictions on February 25, 2026 - Other cities like Chongqing and Beijing have also relaxed restrictions, contributing to a 22% YoY increase in sales [5] - Land Supply Policy: The Ministry of Natural Resources halted commercial land supply, requiring annual new land supply to be less than the area of revitalized existing land [5] Future Outlook - Volume Stabilization: Anticipated stabilization in April following March's performance, with investors cautiously optimistic about recovery [6] - Investment Recommendations: - Favorable on companies with growth potential such as Jinmao, Poly Property, and CRL, with a focus on land purchase growth and resource availability for 2026 [6] Sales Targets - 2026 Sales Targets: - Jinmao aims for +7% YoY - Yuexiu targets -6% YoY - Greentown targets -15% YoY - Many firms did not set formal targets due to market uncertainty [2] Additional Insights - Market Share Focus: Companies like COLI and CMSK are focusing on maintaining or gaining market share rather than setting fixed sales targets [2] - High-Quality Projects: Despite a soft primary market, high-end projects in core locations continue to perform well [3] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China Property sector.