Toll Brothers(US:TOL)2023-12-06 17:24Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company delivered 2,755 homes in Q4 2023, generating $2.95 billion in home sales revenues, $211 million above the midpoint of guidance [4] - Adjusted gross margin was 29.1% in Q4 2023, beating guidance by 60 basis points [4] - Full-year 2023 adjusted gross margin was 28.7%, a 120 basis-point increase over 2022 and 20 basis points better than guidance [5] - Earnings in fiscal year 2023 were $1.4 billion or $12.36 per diluted share, both company records [6] - The company repurchased $326 million of common stock in Q4 2023, bringing full-year repurchases to $556 million at an average price of $72 per share [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Affordable luxury and active adult communities were the strongest performers in Q4 2023, with unit sales up 109% and 82% respectively compared to Q4 2022 [8] - Affordable luxury accounted for 46% of unit sales in Q4 2023, luxury was 31%, and active adult was 23% [8] - Spec homes represented approximately 42% of orders and 33% of deliveries in Q4 2023, with expectations for 35% of deliveries in fiscal 2024 to be spec homes [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The Pacific region saw a nearly 250% increase in agreements in Q4 2023 compared to the prior year, followed by the Mountain region with a 127% increase and the South with an 87% increase [8] - Strongest markets in Q4 2023 included Denver, Boise, Southern California, all of Texas, and the Mid-Atlantic from Atlanta up the Eastern Seaboard to Boston [8] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company's strategy of broadening product offerings to include lower price points and capture greater market share is working, as evidenced by the mix shift and lower ASPs [7] - The company plans to increase community count by 10% in fiscal 2024, targeting 410 operating communities at year-end [12] - The company continues to focus on capital efficiency, with an overall mix target of 60% optioned and 40% owned land over the longer-term [12] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is encouraged by the recent 75 basis point decline in mortgage rates and believes rates may drop further, setting up nicely for the upcoming spring selling season [10] - The company expects a modestly better trend in Q1 2024 compared to historical seasonality, driven by the decline in mortgage rates and easing inflation [10] - Management is optimistic about the company's ability to raise prices and reduce incentives in the upcoming spring selling season [46] Other Important Information - The company ended fiscal year 2023 with over $3 billion of liquidity, including $1.3 billion of cash and $1.8 billion available under its revolving bank credit facility [17] - The company invested $2.3 billion in land acquisition and land development in fiscal year 2023 [18] - The company's net debt to capital ratio was 17.7% at fiscal year-end, with no significant debt maturities until fiscal 2026 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Product Mix Shift and Absorption Rates - The company expects the product mix to stabilize around 45% for affordable luxury on a unit basis, with absorption rates potentially increasing to 26 sales per community per year in 2024 [29][32] Question: Inventory and Construction in Progress - The company's construction in progress (CIP) is $5.5 billion, including backlog and land improvements [35][36] - The company expects inventory turns to improve with the spec strategy and mix shift to more affordable luxury and active adult homes [34] Question: Pricing and Order Trends - Management is optimistic about pricing power in 2024, particularly with the decline in mortgage rates and the upcoming spring selling season [44][46] - The company expects order growth to be around 20% in 2024, driven by community count growth and improved absorption rates [47] Question: Spec vs Build-to-Order Performance - Spec homes sell for about $200,000 less than build-to-order homes, with gross margins approximately 250 basis points lower [51][52] - The return on equity for spec homes is higher than for build-to-order homes, despite the lower gross margins [59] Question: Land Strategy and Inventory Turns - The company's long-term goal is to reduce owned land to 2 to 2.5 years of supply, with almost a year's worth of that land having a backlog or spec home in various stages of construction [56] Question: Incentives and Mortgage Rate Buydowns - The company offers various rate buydown programs, but few clients take advantage of them, preferring to use incentives for home upgrades instead [67][68] Question: Realtor Commissions and NAR Ruling - Two-thirds of the company's sales involve an outside Realtor, with an average commission of 2.25% of the delivered price of the home [80] - Management believes third-party commissions will likely come down in the long term due to ongoing litigation and industry trends [80] Question: Land Banking and Optioned Land - The company may slow the progression to 60% optioned land in 2024 due to higher developer costs of capital, but remains focused on capital efficiency and driving IRRs [82]