Nutrien(NTR)2024-02-28 19:45Company and Industry Overview * Company: Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) * Industry: Agriculture and Materials * Event: Bank of America Securities 2024 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference * Date: February 28, 2024 * Time: 9:50 AM ET Potash Market * Historical Strategy: Nutrien has maintained a consistent strategy of maintaining share in the potash market as global demand grows, historically holding a 19% to 20% share. * Supply Disruptions: In 2021, supply disruptions due to flooding, sanctions, and the war in Ukraine caused a supply crisis and led to potash prices exceeding $1,000 per ton, damaging demand. * Market Recovery: Since 2022, demand has been recovering, with global shipments falling from 70 million tons in 2022 to 61 million tons in 2023. In 2024, Nutrien expects demand to grow from 67 million to 68 million tons last year to 68 million to 71 million tons. * Balanced Market: Nutrien sees 2024 as a more balanced market, with demand recovery and improved affordability. The company aims to grow share with the market, targeting 14 million to 15 million tons in 2024. * Investments: Nutrien has invested in low-cost assets, with an installed capacity of 15 million tons, positioning the company for organic growth as the market recovers. Nitrogen Market * U.S. Market: The U.S. Gulf region is experiencing tightness in nitrogen supply, particularly in urea and UAN, due to strong planting expectations and supply constraints. * Supply Constraints: Constraints include exports leaving the U.S. or Trinidad, gas supply issues in Trinidad, production issues in the U.S., and logistics interruptions in the Middle East. * Retail Supply: Nutrien's retail business is adequately supplied, with inventory levels sufficient through the middle of April and into May. * Capacity Expansion: Nutrien plans to increase nitrogen production from 10.4 million tons in 2023 to 11.5 million to 12 million tons in the mid-cycle case through improvements in Trinidad, Borger, and Geismar, and incremental brownfield projects. Retail Business * Acquisition: Nutrien acquired a retail organization with a proprietary platform and scale, doubling profitability. * Market Share: Nutrien's retail business has a market share of less than 25% in the U.S. market, with opportunities for further consolidation. * Synergies: Nutrien leverages its low-cost position, proprietary products, and scale to drive synergies and profitability. * Brazilian Business: Nutrien's Brazilian business faced challenges due to market volatility, devaluation of fertilizer and crop protection markets, and inventory management issues. The company is taking a breather from acquiring further in Brazil and focusing on integrating existing acquisitions. Phosphate Business * Focus: Nutrien's phosphate business focuses on optimizing the asset base and product mix, with over 50% of phosphates used for non-agricultural purposes. * MAP+MST: Nutrien has successfully converted its traditional dry phosphates business to MAP+MST, a sulfur-enhanced MAP product with strong penetration in North America. * LFP: Nutrien is monitoring the global discussion around lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and its potential impact on the existing product mix.