士丹利：地产-对政策影响持乐观态度，在基本面因素下定价保持不冷不热

Summary of Morgan Stanley Research on China Property Market Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Date: May 16, 2024 - Current Industry View: Downgraded from Attractive to In-Line [3][7] Key Points 1. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - Property stocks have increased approximately 50% since mid-April due to policy easing and improved investor sentiment [3] - Despite this rally, the fundamentals of the property market remain weak and uncertain for the second half of 2024 [3] - The impact of recent policy changes, such as the inventory-clearing initiative, is expected to be slow and may disappoint due to limited funding [3][12] - The removal of home purchase restrictions in high-tier cities could lead to increased secondary supply, putting downward pressure on home prices [3][21] 2. Sales Performance - Primary home sales weakened in May, dropping around 20% month-over-month, despite a slight year-over-year decline narrowing to approximately 40% [4][20] - The recent increase in property sales is attributed to seasonal factors rather than a genuine recovery in buyer sentiment [20] - The housing trade-in program and relaxed purchase restrictions may lead to a surge in secondary listings, further pressuring home prices [21][22] 3. Developer Performance - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to recover better than private and semi-state-owned enterprises (POEs and semi-SOEs) due to uneven benefits from policy easing [5][36] - SOEs experienced a 38% year-over-year decline in contracted sales in the first four months of 2024, outperforming semi-SOEs (-51%) and POEs (-60%) [37] - Liquidity risks remain high for private developers, with many facing negative operating cash flows [5][36] 4. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on quality SOE consolidators and defensive plays such as CR Land, COLI, and Greentown [6] - The recent rally in share prices may prompt selective developers to raise equity to improve cash flows [5][6] 5. Long-term Outlook - The transition to a secondary-dominant housing market may lead to a further decline in primary home sales, potentially dropping to around 8 million units annually from 2024 to 2026 [22] - Ongoing weakness in the land market, with a 16% year-over-year drop in land sales volume, suggests it is premature to confirm a bottoming out of the physical market [22][36] Additional Insights - The effectiveness of recent policy measures is contingent on execution, with past initiatives showing slow rollouts [12][13] - The potential for increased secondary housing supply could exacerbate price declines in tier 1 and top-tier 2 cities [22][36] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Morgan Stanley research on the current state and outlook of the China property market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.