CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 五矿证券·2024-05-26 14:55Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company reported a revenue of 67.54 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.08% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.61% from 2017 to 2023 [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.714 billion yuan, up 33.46% year-on-year, indicating a continuous recovery [12] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 31.4%, and the net profit margin was 9.9%, showing an improvement compared to 2022 [14] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company's revenue is primarily derived from product sales, which include both tax-free and taxable goods. In 2023, the taxable business accounted for over 33.56% of total revenue, reflecting a shift from the previous focus on tax-free sales [12] - The company has established approximately 200 duty-free stores, covering over 100 cities, and has maintained a leading position in the domestic duty-free sales market, with a market share of over 85% [3][4] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company has successfully secured duty-free store operating rights at major airports, including Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and Shanghai Pudong International Airport, which are among the top three airports in terms of passenger throughput [20] - The duty-free business in Hainan has become a significant contributor, accounting for over 60% of the company's performance, supported by favorable policies and strategic store placements [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company aims to leverage its scale advantages and strong bargaining power to enhance competitiveness in the duty-free market, particularly as the Hainan Free Trade Port develops [4] - The company is also expanding its online taxable business, which has shown significant growth, indicating a strategic shift towards integrating online and offline sales channels [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of the duty-free market, driven by policies encouraging consumption return and the recovery of international travel [2] - The management highlighted that the recent agreements to reduce airport rental fees would significantly improve profitability as international passenger traffic recovers [4] Other Important Information - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 23.21%, indicating a strong financial position [7] - The company is rated "Hold" with a target net profit forecast of 7.9 billion yuan for 2024, 9.6 billion yuan for 2025, and 10.9 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23x, 19x, and 17x respectively [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the duty-free market in Hainan? - Management indicated that the duty-free market in Hainan is expected to grow significantly, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and the establishment of new duty-free stores [20] Question: How does the company plan to address increasing competition in the duty-free sector? - The company plans to leverage its scale and operational efficiencies to maintain its market leadership, as historical trends suggest that increased competition often leads to the exit of smaller players, benefiting larger firms [4][3]