Barclays_European_vereign_Supply_nthly_June__flows_cod

Summary of European Sovereign Supply Monthly - June 2024 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the European Government Bonds (EGB) market, detailing the supply and redemption dynamics for June 2024. Key Points Gross and Net Supply Projections - Gross EGB supply is projected to total approximately €105 billion in June, with net issuance expected to rise significantly month-on-month to just over €70 billion due to light redemptions [1][2] - As of the end of May, euro area sovereigns have issued around €711 billion, representing about 53% of the projected total for 2024, which is approximately 2 percentage points ahead of last year [1][6] Monthly Changes - The gross supply in June is expected to decline from approximately €139 billion in May to €105 billion [2][6] - Redemptions are anticipated to decrease significantly from about €108 billion in May to approximately €34 billion in June, leading to a sharp increase in net supply [2][3] Country-Level Insights - Germany is projected to pay redemptions totaling around €17 billion in June, while Belgium will pay approximately €15 billion. However, Belgium's net supply will decline sharply from about €3 billion in May to approximately -€12 billion in June [3][6] - The net supply is expected to increase month-on-month for all large issuers, except Belgium [3] DV01 Analysis - The gross EGB supply burden is expected to average around €19 million per basis point over the coming four weeks, compared to €22 million per basis point in the preceding four weeks [3][10] UK Gilt Operations - The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) plans to hold seven gilt operations in June, including six auctions and a single syndication, with total gross supply projected at £26 billion. There will be no redemptions in June, but £7.5 billion in coupons will be paid, resulting in a net cash call of £18.5 billion [3][6] Year-to-Date Supply Breakdown - Year-to-date gross bond funding by sovereigns shows Germany at €276 billion, France at €320 billion, Italy at €360 billion, and Spain at €173 billion, with respective completion percentages of 47%, 51%, 51%, and 56% for 2024 [6][8] Weekly Cash Flow Breakdown - The report includes a detailed weekly cash flow breakdown for June, indicating gross supply, redemptions, and net cash flow for various countries, with a total gross supply of €105 billion and redemptions of €34 billion [8][9] Maturity Bucket Projections - The projected split of month-ahead gross supply by maturity bucket is provided, indicating a diverse range of maturities being issued [9][10] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring redemption patterns and supply dynamics as they can significantly impact market liquidity and investor sentiment [2][3] - The anticipated decline in gross supply and redemptions may create opportunities for investors looking for value in the EGB market [1][2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the European Sovereign Supply Monthly report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and projections for the EGB market in June 2024.