HBM证券存储专题三：时代核心存力HBM

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2023, the global HBM market value was approximately $4.36 billion, and it is expected to quadruple to $16.9 billion in 2024, driven by strong AI demand [2][30]. - HBM's share of the overall DRAM market is projected to increase from 8.4% in 2023 to 20.1% by the end of 2024 [2][30]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The production capacity for HBM TSV is planned to reach approximately 250K/m by the end of 2023, accounting for about 14% of total DRAM capacity [2][30]. - The overall DRAM industry is expected to see a supply growth of approximately 260% in HBM capacity [2]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The HBM market is dominated by three major suppliers: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with SK Hynix and Samsung each expected to hold a market share of 47-49% in 2024, while Micron's share is projected to be 3-5% [32][33]. - The demand for HBM is anticipated to grow significantly, with a forecasted growth rate of nearly 200% in 2024 and a potential doubling in 2025 [19]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The focus is on domestic and HBM-related upstream and downstream industry chain manufacturers, as the demand for AI training and inference is expected to surge [3]. - HBM is anticipated to drive up prices in mainstream DRAM due to its advanced processing requirements, benefiting storage module companies [3]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that 2023 is seen as the year of AI training, while 2024 is expected to be the year of AI inference, driven by the launch of AI application products [3]. - The ongoing trend of domestic production in the semiconductor industry is expected to create significant demand for HBM, indicating a robust growth outlook for related companies [3]. Other Important Information - HBM technology utilizes TSV and stacking bonding techniques, which are critical for enhancing data transfer speeds and reducing energy consumption [4][20]. - The transition to HBM4 is anticipated to involve mixed bonding technology, which could further enhance performance and efficiency [22]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected growth rates for HBM in the coming years? - The HBM market is projected to grow nearly 200% in 2024 and potentially double again in 2025, reflecting strong demand driven by AI applications [19]. Question: How does HBM impact the DRAM market? - HBM is expected to exert upward pressure on mainstream DRAM prices due to its advanced processing requirements and the limited supply of traditional DRAM as manufacturers shift focus to HBM production [3].