光模块3.2T

Industry and Company Involved * Industry: Optical module industry, specifically focusing on 3.2T optical modules. * Companies: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Xin Yisheng, and other optical module companies. Key Points and Arguments 1. 3.2T Optical Module Timeline and Impact on Profitability: * Timeline: 3.2T optical modules are expected to enter the small batch testing phase in early 2026 and achieve mass production in the second half of 2026. * Impact on Profitability: The timeline of 3.2T optical modules has a significant impact on the profitability of optical module companies. The progress of 3.2T optical modules directly affects the profit forecasts and valuations of leading companies in the industry. * Reference: [doc id='1'], [doc id='2'] 2. Technical Trends of 3.2T Optical Modules: * EMC and Single-Channel 400G: Single-channel 400G technology is crucial for EMC and is expected to be achieved within one and a half years. * Silicon Photonics: Silicon photonics is essential in 3.2T optical modules, with its usage rate potentially reaching 50%. * CPU Technology: CPU technology may be used in some application scenarios but is expected to have a limited quantity. * LPO and TRO Technologies: LPO and TRO technologies are potential technical routes for 3.2T optical modules, with TRO technology potentially accounting for 20%-30% of scenarios. * Reference: [doc id='1'], [doc id='3'], [doc id='5'], [doc id='6'] 3. Impact of Technical Upgrades on Profitability: * Profit Growth: The profitability of optical module companies has mainly come from product technology upgrades. The arrival of 3.2T technology will drive the continuous high growth of profitability for optical module companies. * Market Growth: The 3.2T technology is expected to replicate the impact of 1.6T technology on the profitability of listed companies in 2024 and 2025. * Valuation: The valuation of companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Xin Yisheng should consider the impact of 3.2T technology. * Reference: [doc id='1'], [doc id='7'] 4. Application of Ethernet in AI: * Cost Reduction: Ethernet is a cost-reduction solution compared to InfiniBand and is expected to be applied in more fields, such as some training fields and most inference fields. * Market Expansion: The reduction in deployment costs for inference networks will attract more users and companies to provide AI services, promoting the prosperity of the entire AI ecosystem. * Reference: [doc id='8] 5. Recommendations: * Continue to recommend leading optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Xin Yisheng. * Consider the impact of 3.2T technology on the valuation of these companies. * Focus on the application of Ethernet in AI and its potential to promote the prosperity of the AI ecosystem. * Reference: [doc id='1'], [doc id='9']