Deye(605117)2024-06-13 01:29Financial Data and Key Metrics - Q2 shipments are expected to improve month by month, with microinverters at 300k units, energy storage at 120k units, and string inverters at 220-230k units [4] - Q2 gross margin remains stable, better than expected, due to scale effects and cost reduction measures [4][6] - H1 battery shipments doubled year-over-year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - High-voltage energy storage upgraded to 80kW, expected to mass produce in Q3 2024 [2][6] - Low-voltage three-phase energy storage inverter upgraded to 20kW, the first of its kind in the industry [2][6] - New balcony PV microinverter launched, expected to increase market share in the balcony PV sector [2][6] - Commercial and industrial 100kW PCS expected to mass produce in Q3 2024 [2][6] - First-generation air-cooled commercial and industrial energy storage products have started small-scale shipments domestically [2][8] Market Data and Key Metrics - Residential energy storage market share: Southeast Asia 60%+, South Africa 60-70%, North Africa 40-50%, Brazil 15%, Pakistan 60%+ [3] - Monthly production in June: residential energy storage 50k units, microinverters 120k units, string inverters 70-80k units [3] - Residential energy storage: Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Middle East each at 10k+ units/month, showing diversified demand compared to last year's reliance on South Africa [3] - Microinverters: Brazil 30k units/month, Germany 60-70k units/month, France 10-20k units/month [3] - String inverters: Brazil and India account for 70%, Southeast Asia and Europe account for 30% [3] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is optimistic about the Blue Ocean markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where energy transformation is just starting, and penetration rates are low [6] - New products launched at the PV exhibition include high-voltage energy storage, low-voltage three-phase energy storage inverters, balcony PV microinverters, and commercial and industrial PCS, all of which are highly competitive and unique in the market [6] - The company is preparing for the next generation of liquid cooling systems, which are expected to be launched in Q3/Q4 2024, leading the industry by half a generation [8] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company expects improved energy storage demand in H2 due to European interest rate cuts, inventory depletion, South Africa's renewed power restrictions, and worsening power shortages in the US [5][6] - Emerging markets like India, Pakistan, and Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines) are expected to contribute sustained growth [5] - The company has a significant first-mover advantage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with leading market shares [6] Other Important Information - The company has launched a new generation of liquid cooling system platforms, including liquid-cooled inverters and batteries, with high self-sufficiency rates in core components [8] - The company is also researching next-generation fully submerged liquid cooling technology, expected to be launched by the end of the year [8] - The company has started small-scale shipments of its first-generation air-cooled commercial and industrial energy storage products in China, with plans to launch European-standard outdoor air-cooled products in Q3 2024 [8] Q&A Summary Q: What is the gross margin and plan for the domestic commercial and industrial energy storage market? - The domestic market is not the company's focus, but it uses domestic projects to test product reliability and gain experience for overseas markets [9] Q: Is the liquid cooling system self-developed? What are the advantages compared to competitors? - The liquid cooling system can provide pure AC coupling, suitable for both off-grid and grid-connected scenarios [9] - The company can produce most components except for battery cells, including EMS, sheet metal, injection molding, and inverters [9] - The company is benchmarking against the top three domestic liquid cooling systems and aims to improve product performance and reduce costs through cross-department integration [9] Q: What are the current microinverter and micro energy storage products? What is the market share in Europe? - Microinverters are mainly sold in Brazil, Germany, and France [9] - The company has just launched balcony energy storage products, with small orders in trial production, expected to see sales in Q3 2024 [11] Q: What are the commonalities in the explosive growth of markets like Southeast Asia and South Africa, and why does the company have a near-monopoly in these markets? - South Africa: High market share, but demand for residential energy storage has dropped significantly after power outages eased [12] - Southeast Asia: Rigid demand, with the company having a 5-6 year presence in the market [12] - Pakistan: Exclusive distributor partnership, with a market share of around 60% [12] Q: What is the latest shipment target for commercial and industrial inverters, and what is the proportion of using the company's own batteries? - Commercial and industrial energy storage has a high battery-to-inverter ratio, with 80-90% of high-voltage systems using the company's own batteries [12] Q: What is the progress in the US market? - The company has started small-scale trial production of microinverters in the US, with a target of 50-100k units/month next year [13] - The company has established a local subsidiary in Los Angeles and completed all preparations for the US market in H1 2024 [13] Q: What is the power range of residential energy storage products in Southeast Asia, and how do they differ across markets? - Southeast Asia: 3-20kW, mainly low-voltage, with high cost requirements [14] - Single-phase units go up to 12kW, with 16kW units more common in Thailand and the Philippines [14] Q: Is the demand in Europe still increasing, and what is the impact of competitors in the low-voltage segment? - Europe: 10k units/month, with low-voltage three-phase units mainly in Germany [15] - The company has not yet felt significant competition in the low-voltage segment and is actively iterating products to maintain advantages [15] Q: What is the Q2 outlook and the trend for H2? - Q2 shipments are expected to increase month by month, with energy storage at 50k units/month, microinverters at 120k units/month, and string inverters at 70-80k units/month [15] - H2 is expected to see quarter-by-quarter growth, with orders for July showing improvement compared to June [15] Q: What is the impact of rising freight costs and supply shortages? - Most shipments are FOB, with customers bearing the freight costs [15] - Freight costs account for only 1% of total costs, and demand is recovering, with customers less concerned about freight costs [15] Q: What is the company's market share in emerging markets, and is it sustainable? - Southeast Asia: 60%+ in the Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam [16] - North Africa: 40-50% in Nigeria and Lebanon, up to 60-70% in some areas [16] - Brazil: 15% [16] - Pakistan: 60%+, with 10-15k units/month [16] - The company expects sustained demand in markets like India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Vietnam, and the Philippines due to population growth, economic development, and falling component prices [16] Q: What caused the better-than-expected Q2 gross margin? - The stable gross margin is due to rapid scale-up and ongoing cost reduction measures [16] Q: Is the US energy storage market mainly OEM? - The US market primarily uses the company's own brand, but OEM is not ruled out in the future [16] - The company has signed an exclusive distribution agreement with Portable Solar (Sol-Ark) for inverters [16] Q: Is the target of 50-100k microinverters/month in the US next year still in partnership with Sol-Ark? - Yes, the microinverter business in the US will continue to partner with Sol-Ark [16] Q: Who receives the subsidies in the US? - Subsidies are given to customers, while the company sells products at normal prices [16] Q: Which countries are driving the higher-than-expected residential energy storage production of 50k units/month? - Pakistan: 10k units/month [16] - Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Philippines, Vietnam): 10k+ units/month [16] - Europe: 10k+ units/month [16] - Middle East: 10k+ units/month [16] Q: What is the status of European terminal demand and inventory? - European inventory is relatively low, typically 1-2 months [16] - The company has established local warehouses in Europe but they are not yet operational [16] Q: How long would it take for competitors to enter emerging markets? - The company entered the energy storage market 5-8 years later than some competitors but has established a strong position through product differentiation and customer loyalty [17] Q: What is the breakdown of string inverter production by country? - Brazil and India account for 70%, while Southeast Asia and Europe account for 30% [18] Q: What is the status of the private placement? - The private placement was priced last week, with no major capital expenditures planned, and the dividend payout ratio increased from 35% to 50% [18] Q: What is the profitability of energy storage products in different markets? - Overall energy storage gross margin is around 50% [18] - US and Europe have higher gross margins, followed by South Africa, Southeast Asia, India, and Pakistan, all above 40% [18] Q: Has the company considered policy risks in the US? - The US market accounts for a small portion of the company's business, and there are no significant policy risks for inverters [18] Q: What is the performance guidance? - The company maintains its full-year target without upward revision [18] Q: What is the profitability of battery packs? - Battery packs have a high gross margin of over 40% [18] - Q2 shipments increased quarter-over-quarter, with manufacturing efficiency being a key advantage [18] Q: What is the expense ratio? - The expense ratio is relatively balanced across business lines, at around 10% [19] Q: Are competitors undercutting prices for energy storage battery packs? - The company's energy storage battery packs are priced lower than those of leading competitors like Huawei and Sungrow [19] Q: What is the status of the home appliance business? - The home appliance business exceeded expectations, with a target of 200 million yuan in profit for the year [20] Q: What is the safety of residential energy storage products? - Low-voltage systems with fewer batteries and LFP chemistry are considered safe [20] Q: What is the direction of future product iterations? - The fifth-generation products are in preparation, with a 30% cost reduction compared to the third generation [20] Q: Is there a trend of residential energy storage replacing string inverters in Belt and Road countries? - In India, string inverters dominate unless there are power outages or subsidy cuts [20] - In Pakistan and Brazil, residential energy storage is gradually replacing grid-connected systems due to unstable grids [20] Q: Are all Southeast Asian countries covered, and is residential energy storage only for those with large rooftops? - The company has coverage in most Southeast Asian countries, and residential energy storage is not limited to those with large rooftops [20] Q: Do rigid demand markets consider IRR? - Rigid demand markets do not consider IRR, but in markets like Brazil, residential energy storage is growing, accounting for 5% of grid-connected shipments [20] Q: What is the price of a 10kW system? - The company sells a 10kW system with 10kWh of storage and an inverter to agents for $3,000, with agents adding 10-15% for installers [21] - In Brazil, installation costs are lower, while in Europe, installation costs account for 60-70% of the total price [21] Q: Which countries have significant subsidies? - Only India offers significant subsidies, covering 60-70% of the system cost, with the highest subsidies for systems under 3kW [21] - Pakistan has no subsidies [21] Q: Is India replacing diesel generators first? - That is the case in South Africa, not India [21]