士丹利：多空之辩，继续演绎

Financial Data and Key Metrics - PPI turned positive month-on-month in May, ending a six-month consecutive decline [1] - Government bond net issuance in May reached RMB 1.3 trillion, almost equal to the cumulative issuance in the first four months and more than double the RMB 557 billion in May last year [50] - The net issuance of government bonds in May surged, which could increase the year-on-year growth rate of social financing by 20 basis points [50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The global competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles continues to improve, with significant price advantages in both domestic and international markets [47] - The new housing starts in China have retreated by about 65% from the peak level in Q4 2020, similar to the declines experienced by other countries during major real estate depressions [5] - The transaction volume of second-hand houses improved after the "517" real estate policy, although prices continued to fall [73] Market Data and Key Metrics - The number of international tourists to China has reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels, with the expansion of visa-free policies and improvements in payment methods and railway ticketing systems [6][7] - The container throughput at major Chinese ports and the exports of Vietnam and South Korea have shown strong growth, reflecting robust global demand for high-end manufacturing and labor-intensive products [32][45] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company believes that the most severe period of deflation in China may have passed, as the government has begun to regulate new capacity in industries with overcapacity [37] - Despite the EU's decision to impose tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese new energy vehicles starting in July, the price advantage of Chinese electric vehicles is expected to maintain their competitive edge [47] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the adjustment in housing supply is nearing its end, and recent policies to reduce inventory indicate that the supply-side adjustment may be concluding [76] - The company highlighted that the recovery in air passenger traffic is mainly driven by inbound tourists, supported by China's improved "soft infrastructure" such as visa-free travel and upgraded payment systems [78] Other Important Information - The employment situation for university graduates remains severe, with only 48% of graduates having received job offers by the end of April, down from 50% last year [63] - The household savings rate has risen again due to slowing consumption growth, driven by factors such as declining housing prices, negative wealth effects, and concerns about the job market and future income [16] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the documents